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In The Rafters

TB @ PIT

Joshua Silvia
12–19 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Day GameOutdoor3:30 PM ET64°F · 13 mph wind · light rain⚾ Drew Rasmussen vs Paul SkenesESPN UnlmtdMLB.TVRays.TV
Result readTampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay Rays 8 · Pittsburgh Pirates 7

Final
Tampa Bay Rays26-13-1+0.5 net/g (SOS-adj +0.6) · expected win rate 56% · last 10: 85%
Pittsburgh Pirates22-19+0.8 net/g (SOS-adj +0.6) · expected win rate 57% · last 10: 60%
Venue EdgePNC ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

The model leans Tampa Bay Rays because Pittsburgh Pirates owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and Tampa Bay Rays has the recent-form edge. Bullpen rest day is the sneakiest input — a long man on the mound erases a 3-run lead in two innings.

Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Tampa Bay Rays at 55%. Actual: Tampa Bay Rays by 1.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Tampa Bay Rays

Pittsburgh Pirates

Injury Report

Pittsburgh Pirates

Dominic FletcherDay-To-DayJake Mangum10-Day-ILChris Devenski15-Day-ILJared Jones60-Day-ILOddanier MosquedaDay-To-Day

Tampa Bay Rays

Ty JohnsonDay-To-DayJohn RooneyDay-To-DayGavin Lux10-Day-ILTJ NicholsDay-To-DayAustin VernonDay-To-Day
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Tampa Bay Rays
CS C. Simpson LF · #14 CM Cedric Mullins CF · #31 JD Jonny DeLuca RF · #21 JC J. Caminero 3B · #13 TW Taylor Walls SS · #6 BW Ben Williamson 2B · #15 JA J. Aranda 1B · #8 DR Drew Rasmussen P · #57 NF Nick Fortes C · #40
Pittsburgh Pirates
BR Bryan Reynolds LF · #10 OC Oneil Cruz CF · #15 RO Ryan O'Hearn RF · #29 NG Nick Gonzales 3B · #3 KG Konnor Griffin SS · #6 BL Brandon Lowe 2B · #5 SH S. Horwitz 1B · #2 MK Mitch Keller P · #23 HD Henry Davis C · #32

Box Score

Highlights

  1. ScoreYorke singled to right, Lowe scored, Cook to third.8th Inning5–5
  2. 🏃 DoubleDeLuca doubled to center, Díaz scored and Aranda scored.5th Inning4–4
  3. ScoreGriffin singled to right, Mangum scored, Horwitz to third.13th Inning8–7
  4. ScoreWalls scored on pickoff error by pitcher Ramírez.11th Inning6–5
  5. ScoreMullins singled to center, DeLuca scored.5th Inning5–4
  6. ScoreMullins homered to right center (403 feet), DeLuca scored.13th Inning8–6

Scoring by Inning

Team12345678910111213RHE
Tampa Bay Rays00005000001028150
Pittsburgh Pirates2002000100101772

Tampa Bay Rays

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Chandler Simpson LF·2-7702000117.338.361.388
Junior Caminero 3B·2-7712100021.250.344.438
Jonathan Aranda 1B·2-4412101124.230.341.405
Ryan Vilade RF0-110000009.217.280.261
Yandy Diaz 1B·1-5511001317.354.446.532
Jake Fraley RF·1-2201000111.227.292.364
Jonny DeLuca RF2-4422200011.300.333.525
Cedric Mullins CF·2-5512310125.149.205.284
Richie Palacios 2B·1-220100008.286.444.393
Ben Williamson 2B1-4401000120.241.313.310
Hunter Feduccia C·0-111000109.200.360.200
Nick Fortes C1-2201001016.327.373.455
Taylor Walls SS·0-6610000431.257.316.286

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Drew Rasmussen SP·3.224423264-382.7564
Mason Englert RP0.200010015-87.8415
Ian Seymour RP1.220003023-178.6823
Hunter Bigge RP1.00000009-61.429
Bryan Baker RP1.021112031-204.3231
Cole Sulser RP1.100011022-124.3822
Kevin Kelly RP1.201012020-155.7920
Griffin Jax RP1.000012013-87.0413
Yoendrys Gomez RP1.011011016-96.7516

Pittsburgh Pirates

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Oneil Cruz CF·1-6601000127.302.368.570
Brandon Lowe 2B·0-5510001127.267.375.600
Bryan Reynolds LF·0-3310003117.253.387.413
Ryan O'Hearn RF·2-3322211123.329.417.543
Billy Cook RF0-000000000.333.333.333
Jake Mangum LF0-111000115.268.348.293
Marcell Ozuna DH·2-6612210221.185.254.292
Nick Yorke 3B·1-6611100220.245.349.302
Spencer Horwitz 1B·0-4400002232.245.379.340
Konnor Griffin SS·1-6601200221.216.293.294
Henry Davis C·0-4400000014.186.300.256
Nick Gonzales 3B0-110000002.242.288.290
Joey Bart C0-110000014.143.219.250

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Paul Skenes SP·4.030005064-433.2764
Cam Sanders RP0.234412020-1254.0020
Evan Sisk RP1.241102038-244.5038
Justin Lawrence RP1.210001023-117.2023
Gregory Soto RP1.000011017-90.7717
Isaac Mattson RP1.000000013-81.4213
Yohan Ramirez RP3.043121144-272.3044

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 13th InningWalls struck out swinging.
  2. 12th InningVilade grounded out to second, Caminero to third.
  3. 4th InningHorwitz walked.
  4. 13th InningPitch 10 : Strike 3 Swinging
  5. 12th InningPitch 9 : Ball In Play
  6. 10th InningMangum intentionally walked.

Scoring Plays

  1. 8th InningYorke singled to right, Lowe scored, Cook to third.5–5
  2. 5th InningDeLuca doubled to center, Díaz scored and Aranda scored.4–4
  3. 13th InningGriffin singled to right, Mangum scored, Horwitz to third.8–7
  4. 11th InningWalls scored on pickoff error by pitcher Ramírez.6–5
  5. 5th InningMullins singled to center, DeLuca scored.5–4
  6. 13th InningMullins homered to right center (403 feet), DeLuca scored.8–6
  7. 11th InningGriffin grounded into fielder's choice to second, Yorke scored.6–6
  8. 11th InningWalls scored on pickoff error by pitcher Ramírez.6–5
  9. 1st InningO'Hearn homered to right (379 feet), Reynolds scored.0–2
  10. 11th InningWalls scored on error.6–5
  11. 11th InningWalls scored on pickoff error by pitcher Ramírez.6–5
  12. 5th InningAranda singled to center, Caminero scored.2–4
  13. 4th InningOzuna homered to left (387 feet), O'Hearn scored.0–4
  14. 5th InningCaminero doubled to left, Feduccia scored.1–4

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