ATL @ PHI
Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameOutdoor7:20 PM ET45°F · 3 mph wind · clear⚾ Grant Holmes vs Andrew PainterPeacock
Result readAtlanta Braves
Atlanta Braves 4 · Philadelphia Phillies 2
Final
Atlanta Braves28-13+2.1 net/g (SOS-adj +1.9) · expected win rate 71% · last 10: 60%
Philadelphia Phillies19-22-1-0.8 net/g (SOS-adj -0.7) · expected win rate 42% · last 10: 70%
Venue EdgeCitizens Bank ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Two reasons the projection lands on Atlanta Braves: Atlanta Braves’s scoring margin profile and Philadelphia Phillies’s recent stretch. Pitcher confirmation and bullpen availability can move this fastest.
Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Atlanta Braves at 91%. Actual: Atlanta Braves by 2.
Pre-game pick: Atlanta Braves at 91%. Actual: Atlanta Braves by 2.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Atlanta Braves
- Bryce Elder SP · #55
- Grant Holmes SP · #66
- Austin Riley 3B · #27
- Drake Baldwin C · #30
Philadelphia Phillies
- Cristopher Sanchez SP · #61
- Aaron Nola SP · #27
- Tim Mayza RP · #37
- Adolis Garcia RF · #53
Injury Report
Philadelphia Phillies
Christian McGowanDay-To-DayKyle Backhus15-Day-ILKeaton AnthonyDay-To-DayRene PintoDay-To-DayZach Pop15-Day-IL
Atlanta Braves
Sean MurphyDay-To-DayDylan Dodd15-Day-ILRonald Acuna Jr.10-Day-ILBlake BurkhalterDay-To-DayEli White7-day il
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- 🏃 DoubleAlbies doubled to left, Olson scored, Riley to third.4–2
- ScoreOlson grounded into fielder's choice to second, Harris II scored, Baldwin out at second, Acuña Jr. to third.2–2
- ScoreSchwarber homered to right center (381 feet), Turner scored.0–2
- ScoreHarris II homered to right (376 feet).1–2
- ScoreRiley reached on infield single to third, Acuña Jr. scored, Olson to second.3–2
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Atlanta Braves
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Acuna Jr. RF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 21 | .247 | .350 | .365 |
| Drake Baldwin C· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 18 | .304 | .366 | .500 |
| Matt Olson 1B· | 0-5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 24 | .279 | .374 | .570 |
| Austin Riley 3B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | .250 | .330 | .405 |
| Ozzie Albies 2B· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 22 | .282 | .340 | .459 |
| Mike Yastrzemski LF· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | .215 | .311 | .292 |
| Eli White CF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .150 | .182 | .200 |
| Dominic Smith 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | .353 | .370 | .627 |
| Mauricio Dubon SS· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 24 | .299 | .341 | .455 |
| Michael Harris II CF· | 3-3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14 | .290 | .338 | .478 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Holmes SP· | 4.2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 81-50 | 3.42 | 81 |
| Aaron Bummer RP | 0.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5-5 | 5.06 | 5 |
| Tyler Kinley RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18-10 | 1.00 | 18 |
| Dylan Lee RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16-12 | 0.90 | 16 |
| Robert Suarez RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14-11 | 0.93 | 14 |
| Raisel Iglesias RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 21-13 | 0.00 | 21 |
Philadelphia Phillies
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trea Turner SS· | 1-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | .256 | .304 | .372 |
| Kyle Schwarber LF· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 22 | .227 | .376 | .560 |
| Bryce Harper 1B· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18 | .273 | .364 | .519 |
| Adolis Garcia RF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 24 | .205 | .306 | .342 |
| Brandon Marsh LF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | .265 | .292 | .412 |
| Alec Bohm 3B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | .139 | .213 | .194 |
| Bryson Stott 2B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | .207 | .270 | .241 |
| Rafael Marchan C· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | .037 | .071 | .148 |
| Justin Crawford CF· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20 | .276 | .354 | .379 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Painter SP· | 4.0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 84-53 | 4.42 | 84 |
| Tim Mayza RP | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 26-16 | 3.00 | 26 |
| Chase Shugart RP | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 20-12 | 2.45 | 20 |
| Kyle Backhus RP | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14-8 | 6.00 | 14 |
| Orion Kerkering RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13-7 | 4.26 | 13 |
| Seth Johnson SP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8-7 | 10.13 | 8 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 6th InningDubón struck out swinging.
- 2nd InningDubón struck out looking.
- 6th InningPitch 9 : Strike 3 Swinging
- 2nd InningPitch 10 : Strike 3 Looking
- 8th InningGarcía struck out swinging.
Scoring Plays
- 5th InningAlbies doubled to left, Olson scored, Riley to third.4–2
- 5th InningOlson grounded into fielder's choice to second, Harris II scored, Baldwin out at second, Acuña Jr. to third.2–2
- 1st InningSchwarber homered to right center (381 feet), Turner scored.0–2
- 3rd InningHarris II homered to right (376 feet).1–2
- 5th InningRiley reached on infield single to third, Acuña Jr. scored, Olson to second.3–2