DET @ BOS
Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Afternoon GameOutdoor4:35 PM ET40°F · 10 mph wind · overcast⚾ Framber Valdez vs Garrett CrochetMLB.TVTigers.TVNESN+
Result readDetroit Tigers
Detroit Tigers 6 · Boston Red Sox 2
Final
Detroit Tigers19-22+0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.1) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 40%
Boston Red Sox17-23-1-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.3) · expected win rate 47% · last 10: 55%
Venue EdgeFenway ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Detroit Tigers is the model’s call — Detroit Tigers on the margin numbers, Boston Red Sox on the form numbers. Bullpen rest day is the sneakiest input — a long man on the mound erases a 3-run lead in two innings.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Boston Red Sox at 59%. Actual: Detroit Tigers by 4.
Pre-game pick: Boston Red Sox at 59%. Actual: Detroit Tigers by 4.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Detroit Tigers
- Framber Valdez SP · #59
- Jack Flaherty SP · #9
- Riley Greene LF · #31
- Kevin McGonigle SS · #7
Boston Red Sox
- Brayan Bello SP · #66
- Connelly Early SP · #71
- Trevor Story SS · #10
- Willson Contreras 1B · #40
Injury Report
Boston Red Sox
Willson ContrerasDay-To-DayKutter Crawford15-Day-ILRoman Anthony10-Day-ILDanny Coulombe15-Day-ILGarrett Crochet15-Day-IL
Detroit Tigers
Connor Seabold15-Day-ILFramber ValdezsuspensionWill Vest15-Day-ILGleyber Torres10-Day-ILCasey Mize15-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- 🏃 DoubleDingler doubled to center, Vierling scored.1–0
- 🏃 DoubleDurbin doubled to left, Abreu scored.6–2
- ScoreDingler homered to center (397 feet), Torres scored and Vierling scored.5–1
- ScoreTorres singled to right, Báez scored, Carpenter to second.6–1
- ScoreJones homered to center (423 feet).2–1
- ScoreContreras homered to left center (394 feet).1–1
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 0 |
| Boston Red Sox | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Detroit Tigers
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmai Jones RF· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | .200 | .200 | .400 |
| Kerry Carpenter RF | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 | .232 | .338 | .464 |
| Gleyber Torres 2B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 22 | .238 | .354 | .300 |
| Matt Vierling CF· | 2-5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22 | .235 | .250 | .382 |
| Dillon Dingler C· | 4-5 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20 | .302 | .380 | .603 |
| Riley Greene LF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 23 | .247 | .348 | .364 |
| Wenceel Perez RF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | .038 | .107 | .154 |
| Spencer Torkelson 1B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 | .182 | .333 | .227 |
| Hao-Yu Lee 3B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Javier Baez SS· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | .293 | .323 | .431 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Framber Valdez SP· | 6.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 98-70 | 3.30 | 98 |
| Kyle Finnegan RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19-12 | 0.00 | 19 |
| Will Vest RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19-12 | 5.00 | 19 |
| Connor Seabold RP | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 15-13 | 2.79 | 15 |
Boston Red Sox
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Anthony LF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 22 | .227 | .341 | .333 |
| Andruw Monasterio SS· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | .222 | .300 | .296 |
| Willson Contreras 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 17 | .279 | .417 | .485 |
| Trevor Story SS· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 15 | .193 | .215 | .307 |
| Wilyer Abreu RF· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | .312 | .361 | .506 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela CF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 20 | .279 | .362 | .377 |
| Caleb Durbin 3B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | .141 | .236 | .203 |
| Carlos Narvaez C· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | .205 | .222 | .227 |
| Masataka Yoshida LF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .300 | .462 | .400 |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2B· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | .174 | .240 | .174 |
| Marcelo Mayer 2B | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | .173 | .254 | .288 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Crochet SP· | 5.0 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 93-62 | 7.88 | 93 |
| Ryan Watson RP | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16-11 | 6.75 | 16 |
| Jack Anderson RP | 3.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 41-28 | 3.00 | 41 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 1st InningAbreu walked.
- 8th InningAnthony walked.
- 1st InningPitch 8 : Ball 4
- 8th InningContreras grounded out to third.
- 8th InningPitch 8 : Ball 4
Scoring Plays
- 1st InningDingler doubled to center, Vierling scored.1–0
- 9th InningDurbin doubled to left, Abreu scored.6–2
- 5th InningDingler homered to center (397 feet), Torres scored and Vierling scored.5–1
- 9th InningTorres singled to right, Báez scored, Carpenter to second.6–1
- 5th InningJones homered to center (423 feet).2–1
- 1st InningContreras homered to left center (394 feet).1–1