CIN @ TB
Tropicana Field · St. Petersburg, Florida
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameIndoor6:40 PM ET⚾ Rhett Lowder vs Jesse ScholtensMLB.TVGray MediaWXIX FOX19Reds.TV
Result readCincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 6 · Tampa Bay Rays 1
Final
Cincinnati Reds22-19-0.8 net/g (SOS-adj -0.8) · expected win rate 42% · last 10: 20%
Tampa Bay Rays26-13-1+0.5 net/g (SOS-adj +0.6) · expected win rate 56% · last 10: 85%
Venue EdgeTropicana FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Cincinnati Reds is the model’s call — Tampa Bay Rays on the margin numbers, Tampa Bay Rays on the form numbers. Lineup vs. starter L/R splits matter more than season ERAs in a one-game sample.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Tampa Bay Rays at 84%. Actual: Cincinnati Reds by 5.
Pre-game pick: Tampa Bay Rays at 84%. Actual: Cincinnati Reds by 5.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Cincinnati Reds
- Andrew Abbott SP · #41
- Brady Singer SP · #51
- Elly De La Cruz SS · #44
- Matt McLain 2B · #9
Tampa Bay Rays
- Drew Rasmussen SP · #57
- Nick Martinez SP · #28
- Cole Sulser RP · #71
- Griffin Jax RP · #22
Injury Report
Tampa Bay Rays
Ty JohnsonDay-To-DayJohn RooneyDay-To-DayGavin Lux10-Day-ILTJ NicholsDay-To-DayAustin VernonDay-To-Day
Cincinnati Reds
Josh StaumontDay-To-DayCaleb Ferguson15-Day-ILRhett LowderOutEugenio Suarez10-Day-ILConnor BurnsDay-To-Day
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreStewart scored on Martin wild pitch.6–1
- ScoreDíaz walked, Simpson scored, Aranda to second, Caminero to third.2–1
- ScoreStewart scored on Martin wild pitch.6–1
- 🏃 DoubleHinds doubled to left, Steer scored and Suárez scored.5–1
- ScoreStewart homered to center (424 feet), McLain scored.2–0
- ScoreDe La Cruz singled to right, Friedl scored, McLain to second.3–1
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 0 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Cincinnati Reds
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl CF· | 1-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | .157 | .263 | .181 |
| Matt McLain 2B· | 2-5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21 | .200 | .340 | .250 |
| Elly De La Cruz SS· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | .261 | .333 | .511 |
| Sal Stewart 1B· | 2-4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | .289 | .388 | .639 |
| Eugenio Suarez 3B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20 | .256 | .330 | .402 |
| Spencer Steer LF· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | .211 | .269 | .394 |
| Dane Myers CF | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .250 | .344 | .250 |
| Tyler Stephenson C· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | .170 | .286 | .283 |
| Rece Hinds RF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 22 | .143 | .174 | .238 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | .071 | .133 | .071 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhett Lowder SP· | 6.0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 93-58 | 3.10 | 93 |
| Brock Burke RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 14-10 | 0.87 | 14 |
| Pierce Johnson RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16-8 | 2.89 | 16 |
| Connor Phillips RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19-10 | 1.93 | 19 |
Tampa Bay Rays
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chandler Simpson LF· | 2-5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | .337 | .359 | .382 |
| Junior Caminero 3B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | .250 | .337 | .455 |
| Jonathan Aranda 1B· | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 14 | .225 | .343 | .388 |
| Yandy Diaz 1B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19 | .326 | .420 | .488 |
| Jake Fraley RF· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 19 | .234 | .308 | .383 |
| Cedric Mullins CF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | .147 | .198 | .280 |
| Nick Fortes C· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | .305 | .349 | .424 |
| Richie Palacios 2B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | .286 | .419 | .400 |
| Taylor Walls SS· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20 | .220 | .289 | .244 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesse Scholtens RP· | 5.2 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 95-61 | 2.93 | 95 |
| Trevor Martin RP | 2.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 33-19 | 3.86 | 33 |
| Cole Sulser RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7-5 | 4.05 | 7 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 7th InningSuárez struck out looking.
- 7th InningPitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking
- 7th InningWalls struck out looking.
- 7th InningPitch 5 : Ball 3
Scoring Plays
- 7th InningStewart scored on Martin wild pitch.6–1
- 1st InningDíaz walked, Simpson scored, Aranda to second, Caminero to third.2–1
- 7th InningStewart scored on Martin wild pitch.6–1
- 6th InningHinds doubled to left, Steer scored and Suárez scored.5–1
- 1st InningStewart homered to center (424 feet), McLain scored.2–0
- 3rd InningDe La Cruz singled to right, Friedl scored, McLain to second.3–1