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InTheRafters.com

DET @ BOS

Joshua Silvia
12–18 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Day GameOutdoor11:10 AM ET50°F · 8 mph wind · mostly clear⚾ Jack Flaherty vs Sonny GrayMLB.TVTigers.TV
Result readBoston Red Sox

Detroit Tigers 6 · Boston Red Sox 8

Final
Detroit Tigers19-22+0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.1) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 40%
Boston Red Sox17-23-1-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.3) · expected win rate 47% · last 10: 55%
Venue EdgeFenway ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

The model leans Boston Red Sox because Detroit Tigers owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and Boston Red Sox has the recent-form edge. Pitcher confirmation and bullpen availability can move this fastest.

Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Detroit Tigers at 50%. Actual: Boston Red Sox by 2.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Detroit Tigers

Boston Red Sox

Injury Report

Boston Red Sox

Willson ContrerasDay-To-DayKutter Crawford15-Day-ILRoman Anthony10-Day-ILDanny Coulombe15-Day-ILGarrett Crochet15-Day-IL

Detroit Tigers

Connor Seabold15-Day-ILFramber ValdezsuspensionWill Vest15-Day-ILGleyber Torres10-Day-ILCasey Mize15-Day-IL
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Detroit Tigers
RG Riley Greene LF · #31 MV Matt Vierling CF · #8 KC K. Carpenter RF · #30 CK Colt Keith 3B · #33 KM K. McGonigle SS · #7 GT Gleyber Torres 2B · #25 ST S. Torkelson 1B · #20 FV Framber Valdez P · #59 DD Dillon Dingler C · #13
Boston Red Sox
JD Jarren Duran LF · #16 CR C. Rafaela CF · #3 WA Wilyer Abreu RF · #52 CD Caleb Durbin 3B · #5 TS Trevor Story SS · #10 MM Marcelo Mayer 2B · #11 WC W. Contreras 1B · #40 BB Brayan Bello P · #66 CN Carlos Narvaez C · #75

Box Score

Highlights

  1. ScoreAnthony singled to center, Narváez scored.6th Inning3–3
  2. ScoreNarváez reached on infield single to second, Rafaela scored.7th Inning3–6
  3. ScoreTorres singled to right, Lee scored, McGonigle to third.9th Inning4–8
  4. ScoreAbreu walked, Mayer scored, Anthony to second, Narváez to third.2nd Inning0–2
  5. ScoreRafaela singled to right, Story scored and Yoshida scored, Rafaela to second, Durbin out at home on runner's fielder's choice.7th Inning3–5
  6. ScoreJones singled to center, Greene scored, Dingler to third.6th Inning3–2

Scoring by Inning

Team123456789RHE
Detroit Tigers0011010036101
Boston Red Sox02000132—8120

Detroit Tigers

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Kevin McGonigle SS·2-5512000124.317.411.488
Gleyber Torres 2B·1-4411101026.238.356.298
Colt Keith 3B·0-4400000016.299.329.403
Spencer Torkelson 1B0-110000018.179.329.224
Riley Greene LF·2-3312202017.263.372.388
Dillon Dingler C·0-4410001014.284.368.567
Kerry Carpenter RF·0-110000019.228.343.456
Jahmai Jones RF1-110110003.238.238.429
Wenceel Perez RF0-110000001.037.103.148
Matt Vierling CF·1-4411000220.237.250.395
Hao-Yu Lee 3B·2-4412100110.182.182.273
Jake Rogers C·1-4401100112.143.167.238

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Jack Flaherty SP·3.132063073-413.4773
Brant Hurter RP2.221102041-253.0041
Tyler Holton RP0.243321026-143.6026
Drew Anderson RP1.132201021-157.9421

Boston Red Sox

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Roman Anthony LF·1-2201103125.234.366.338
Willson Contreras 1B·1-5501000111.274.404.466
Wilyer Abreu RF·0-4400101126.296.352.481
Masataka Yoshida LF·2-4422001018.324.477.412
Trevor Story SS·1-4421001216.196.224.315
Jarren Duran LF·0-330000017.164.243.254
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2B1-220120016.200.259.200
Caleb Durbin 3B·2-4412001021.162.260.235
Marcelo Mayer 2B·1-331100007.182.258.291
Ceddanne Rafaela CF1-221120005.286.366.381
Carlos Narvaez C·2-3312101019.234.265.277

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Sonny Gray SP·2.231112040-274.3040
Danny Coulombe RP0.201110015-63.1815
Zack Kelly RP1.210001027-164.5027
Jovani Moran RP0.011120014-62.0314
Greg Weissert RP1.000003010-94.8210
Garrett Whitlock RP1.000000012-92.0012
Ryan Watson RP1.143300029-198.1029
Aroldis Chapman RP0.210001013-111.1713

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 3rd InningTorres walked.
  2. 9th InningTorkelson struck out swinging.
  3. 4th InningVierling struck out swinging.
  4. 3rd InningPitch 9 : Ball 4
  5. 9th InningPitch 8 : Strike 3 Swinging

Scoring Plays

  1. 6th InningAnthony singled to center, Narváez scored.3–3
  2. 7th InningNarváez reached on infield single to second, Rafaela scored.3–6
  3. 9th InningTorres singled to right, Lee scored, McGonigle to third.4–8
  4. 2nd InningAbreu walked, Mayer scored, Anthony to second, Narváez to third.0–2
  5. 7th InningRafaela singled to right, Story scored and Yoshida scored, Rafaela to second, Durbin out at home on runner's fielder's choice.3–5
  6. 6th InningJones singled to center, Greene scored, Dingler to third.3–2
  7. 9th InningGreene doubled to right, McGonigle scored and Torres scored.6–8
  8. 8th InningKiner-Falefa singled to right, Yoshida scored and Story scored.3–8
  9. 4th InningLee singled to center, Dingler scored, Carpenter to second.2–2
  10. 2nd InningNarváez grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Durbin scored on throwing error by pitcher Flaherty, Mayer to second.0–1
  11. 3rd InningRogers singled to left, Vierling scored.1–2

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