Skip to content

📰 News · ⚡ Scores · 🏟 Games · 👤 Players · 🏆 Teams · 🦉 Rafty

In The Rafters

CIN @ TB

Joshua Silvia
12–19 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Night GameIndoor6:40 PM ET⚾ Chase Burns vs Steven MatzMLB.TVReds.TVRays.TV
Result readCincinnati Reds

Cincinnati Reds 12 · Tampa Bay Rays 6

Final
Cincinnati Reds22-19-0.8 net/g (SOS-adj -0.8) · expected win rate 42% · last 10: 20%
Tampa Bay Rays26-13-1+0.5 net/g (SOS-adj +0.6) · expected win rate 56% · last 10: 85%
Venue EdgeTropicana FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

The model leans Cincinnati Reds because Tampa Bay Rays owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and Tampa Bay Rays has the recent-form edge. Pitcher confirmation and bullpen availability can move this fastest.

Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Tampa Bay Rays at 84%. Actual: Cincinnati Reds by 6.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Cincinnati Reds

Tampa Bay Rays

Injury Report

Tampa Bay Rays

Ty JohnsonDay-To-DayJohn RooneyDay-To-DayGavin Lux10-Day-ILTJ NicholsDay-To-DayAustin VernonDay-To-Day

Cincinnati Reds

Josh StaumontDay-To-DayCaleb Ferguson15-Day-ILRhett LowderOutEugenio Suarez10-Day-ILConnor BurnsDay-To-Day
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Cincinnati Reds
SS Spencer Steer LF · #7 TF TJ Friedl CF · #29 WB Will Benson RF · #30 KH Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B · #3 EC E. Cruz SS · #44 MM Matt McLain 2B · #9 SS Sal Stewart 1B · #27 AA Andrew Abbott P · #41 TS T. Stephenson C · #37
Tampa Bay Rays
CS C. Simpson LF · #14 CM Cedric Mullins CF · #31 JD Jonny DeLuca RF · #21 JC J. Caminero 3B · #13 TW Taylor Walls SS · #6 BW Ben Williamson 2B · #15 JA J. Aranda 1B · #8 DR Drew Rasmussen P · #57 NF Nick Fortes C · #40

Box Score

Highlights

  1. ScoreStewart singled to center, McLain scored and De La Cruz scored.6th Inning9–0
  2. ScoreDe La Cruz grounded into fielder's choice to first, Myers scored.6th Inning7–0
  3. ScoreWilliamson walked, Simpson scored, Aranda to second, Caminero to third.9th Inning12–4
  4. 🏃 DoubleMcLain doubled to left, Hayes scored, Myers to third.6th Inning6–0
  5. ScoreMyers homered to left center (396 feet).2nd Inning4–0
  6. ScoreAranda walked, Palacios scored, Caminero to second, Simpson to third.9th Inning12–3

Scoring by Inning

Team123456789RHE
Cincinnati Reds22001420112100
Tampa Bay Rays000002004680

Cincinnati Reds

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Dane Myers CF·1-3341113028.258.395.355
Matt McLain 2B·2-6612100118.209.340.267
Elly De La Cruz SS·3-6633520121.276.343.571
Sal Stewart 1B·2-4402301024.299.394.632
Eugenio Suarez 3B·0-5500000219.241.313.379
Spencer Steer LF·1-3311112121.216.289.432
Tyler Stephenson C·0-4400001326.158.279.263
Rece Hinds RF·0-3310000316.125.185.208
Will Benson RF0-000000107.188.333.281
Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B·1-3321112021.085.169.136

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Chase Burns SP·5.242228197-632.5797
Sam Moll RP1.120000028-171.6428
Pierce Johnson RP1.010002017-112.6117
Kyle Nicolas RP1.014452042-179.9542

Tampa Bay Rays

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Chandler Simpson LF·0-4410001019.323.351.366
Junior Caminero 3B·2-4422001123.261.349.457
Jonathan Aranda 1B·1-3321312126.229.356.422
Yandy Diaz 1B·1-4401000119.322.413.478
Ben Williamson 2B0-000010106.241.323.310
Jake Fraley RF·0-110000013.229.302.375
Jonny DeLuca RF1-4401200216.298.327.511
Cedric Mullins CF·1-220100005.156.205.286
Ryan Vilade RF1-3301000014.231.286.308
Richie Palacios 2B·0-2210002117.270.426.378
Hunter Feduccia C·1-4401000215.222.344.222
Taylor Walls SS·0-4400000321.200.265.222

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Steven Matz SP·3.044444377-444.8177
Ian Seymour RP1.000011015-97.7115
Griffin Jax RP1.112213129-188.0029
Hunter Bigge RP0.223321033-165.1433
Yoendrys Gomez RP2.022222040-247.0440
Ben Williamson 2B1.01110017-59.007

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 2nd InningStephenson flied out to right.
  2. 5th InningStewart grounded out to shortstop.
  3. 2nd InningPitch 10 : Ball In Play
  4. 8th InningAranda struck out looking.

Scoring Plays

  1. 6th InningStewart singled to center, McLain scored and De La Cruz scored.9–0
  2. 6th InningDe La Cruz grounded into fielder's choice to first, Myers scored.7–0
  3. 9th InningWilliamson walked, Simpson scored, Aranda to second, Caminero to third.12–4
  4. 6th InningMcLain doubled to left, Hayes scored, Myers to third.6–0
  5. 2nd InningMyers homered to left center (396 feet).4–0
  6. 9th InningAranda walked, Palacios scored, Caminero to second, Simpson to third.12–3
  7. 9th InningDeLuca doubled to first, Caminero scored and Aranda scored, Williamson to third.12–6
  8. 9th InningDe La Cruz homered to left center (406 feet).12–2
  9. 6th InningAranda homered to right (366 feet), Caminero scored.9–2
  10. 5th InningSteer homered to left center (387 feet).5–0
  11. 1st InningDe La Cruz homered to right center (414 feet), Myers scored.2–0
  12. 7th InningStewart hit sacrifice fly to center, Myers scored, De La Cruz to second, McLain to third.11–2
  13. 7th InningDe La Cruz singled to right, Hinds scored, McLain to second, Myers to third.10–2
  14. 2nd InningHayes homered to right (363 feet).3–0

Trending