MIN @ NYM
Citi Field · Queens, New York
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameOutdoor7:10 PM ET⚾ Connor Prielipp vs Clay HolmesMLB.TVTwins.TV
Result readNew York Mets
Minnesota Twins 2 · New York Mets 3
Final
Minnesota Twins18-23-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.5) · expected win rate 47% · last 10: 50%
New York Mets15-25-2-0.7 net/g (SOS-adj -0.9) · expected win rate 41% · last 10: 55%
Venue EdgeCiti FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
The model leans New York Mets because Minnesota Twins owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and New York Mets has the recent-form edge. Pitcher confirmation and bullpen availability can move this fastest.
Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: New York Mets at 54%. Actual: New York Mets by 1.
Pre-game pick: New York Mets at 54%. Actual: New York Mets by 1.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Minnesota Twins
- Bailey Ober SP · #17
- Joe Ryan SP · #41
- Josh Bell 1B · #56
- Luke Keaschall 2B · #15
New York Mets
- Freddy Peralta SP · #51
- Clay Holmes SP · #35
- Tobias Myers RP · #32
- Bo Bichette 3B · #19
Injury Report
New York Mets
Nate LavenderDay-To-DayNick BurdiDay-To-DayGrae KessingerOutJose RojasDay-To-DayA.J. Minter15-Day-IL
Minnesota Twins
Cory LewisDay-To-DayGarrett Acton15-Day-ILCole Sands15-Day-ILJulian MerryweatherDay-To-DayCody Laweryson15-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreLindor reached on infield single to third, Bichette scored.0–1
- ScoreBuxton homered to left (409 feet).2–2
- ScoreCaratini hit sacrifice fly to center, Larnach scored.1–1
- ScoreVientos singled to right, Baty scored, Alvarez to third.2–3
- 🏃 DoubleAlvarez doubled to center, Lindor scored.1–2
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 1 |
| New York Mets | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — | 3 | 8 | 0 |
Minnesota Twins
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton CF· | 1-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20 | .231 | .290 | .451 |
| Trevor Larnach LF· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | .268 | .444 | .415 |
| Austin Martin LF | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | .311 | .492 | .444 |
| Josh Bell 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | .253 | .344 | .422 |
| Victor Caratini C· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21 | .250 | .350 | .313 |
| Kody Clemens 1B· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | .178 | .275 | .356 |
| Ryan Jeffers C | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | .263 | .391 | .439 |
| Luke Keaschall 2B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | .213 | .257 | .277 |
| Matt Wallner RF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | .190 | .281 | .329 |
| Royce Lewis 3B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 16 | .205 | .340 | .386 |
| Brooks Lee SS· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | .208 | .269 | .347 |
| James Outman CF | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .091 | .167 | .136 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Prielipp SP· | 4.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 82-52 | 4.50 | 82 |
| Kendry Rojas SP | 2.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 35-19 | 0.00 | 35 |
| Eric Orze RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 11-7 | 3.72 | 11 |
| Taylor Rogers RP | 0.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12-6 | 4.15 | 12 |
| Justin Topa RP | 0.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17-10 | 3.86 | 17 |
New York Mets
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Bichette 3B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | .220 | .255 | .290 |
| Juan Soto LF· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16 | .353 | .421 | .500 |
| Luis Robert Jr. CF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | .231 | .333 | .333 |
| Francisco Lindor SS· | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | .226 | .314 | .355 |
| Brett Baty RF | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 11 | .209 | .236 | .284 |
| Francisco Alvarez C· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18 | .254 | .365 | .476 |
| Mark Vientos 1B· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 20 | .237 | .281 | .373 |
| Marcus Semien 2B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 22 | .226 | .290 | .310 |
| Tommy Pham LF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Carson Benge LF | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .136 | .219 | .197 |
| Tyrone Taylor RF· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | .212 | .235 | .333 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay Holmes SP· | 7.0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 88-56 | 2.10 | 88 |
| Brooks Raley RP | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 16-9 | 2.08 | 16 |
| Luke Weaver RP | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 30-21 | 5.40 | 30 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 8th InningAlvarez walked, Baty to second.
- 8th InningPitch 9 : Ball 4
- 3rd InningBichette flied out to center.
- 8th InningPitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul
- 8th InningBaty walked.
Scoring Plays
- 1st InningLindor reached on infield single to third, Bichette scored.0–1
- 6th InningBuxton homered to left (409 feet).2–2
- 4th InningCaratini hit sacrifice fly to center, Larnach scored.1–1
- 8th InningVientos singled to right, Baty scored, Alvarez to third.2–3
- 4th InningAlvarez doubled to center, Lindor scored.1–2