PHI @ ATL
Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameOutdoor7:15 PM ET73°F · 3 mph wind · overcast⚾ Andrew Painter vs Grant HolmesApple TV
Result readAtlanta Braves
Philadelphia Phillies 3 · Atlanta Braves 5
Final
Philadelphia Phillies19-22-1-0.8 net/g (SOS-adj -0.7) · expected win rate 42% · last 10: 70%
Atlanta Braves28-13+2.1 net/g (SOS-adj +1.9) · expected win rate 71% · last 10: 60%
Venue EdgeTruist ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Pick goes to Atlanta Braves on the back of Atlanta Braves’s margin work and Philadelphia Phillies’s last-ten momentum. Bullpen rest day is the sneakiest input — a long man on the mound erases a 3-run lead in two innings.
Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Atlanta Braves at 80%. Actual: Atlanta Braves by 2.
Pre-game pick: Atlanta Braves at 80%. Actual: Atlanta Braves by 2.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Philadelphia Phillies
- Cristopher Sanchez SP · #61
- Aaron Nola SP · #27
- Tim Mayza RP · #37
- Adolis Garcia RF · #53
Atlanta Braves
- Bryce Elder SP · #55
- Grant Holmes SP · #66
- Austin Riley 3B · #27
- Drake Baldwin C · #30
Injury Report
Atlanta Braves
Sean MurphyDay-To-DayDylan Dodd15-Day-ILRonald Acuna Jr.10-Day-ILBlake BurkhalterDay-To-DayEli White7-day il
Philadelphia Phillies
Christian McGowanDay-To-DayKyle Backhus15-Day-ILKeaton AnthonyDay-To-DayRene PintoDay-To-DayZach Pop15-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreMateo scored on Painter wild pitch.3–5
- ScoreMateo scored on Painter wild pitch.3–5
- ScoreAcuña Jr. homered to left (410 feet), White scored.2–2
- 🏃 DoubleHarris II doubled to center, Dubón and Smith scored.3–4
- ScoreHarper homered to left center (389 feet).3–2
- ScoreTurner homered to right (375 feet), Stubbs scored.2–0
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 1 |
| Atlanta Braves | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | — | 5 | 10 | 0 |
Philadelphia Phillies
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trea Turner SS· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 18 | .229 | .302 | .362 |
| Kyle Schwarber LF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 30 | .189 | .336 | .484 |
| Bryce Harper 1B· | 1-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14 | .258 | .345 | .515 |
| Adolis Garcia RF· | 3-5 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | .242 | .320 | .385 |
| Brandon Marsh LF· | 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | .294 | .322 | .482 |
| Bryson Stott 2B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | .211 | .263 | .239 |
| Alec Bohm 3B· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15 | .157 | .238 | .213 |
| Justin Crawford CF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | .247 | .329 | .342 |
| Garrett Stubbs C· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | .333 | .286 | .333 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Painter SP· | 5.2 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 96-62 | 5.25 | 96 |
| Kyle Backhus RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7-6 | 5.19 | 7 |
| Chase Shugart RP | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6-2 | 1.35 | 6 |
| Tim Mayza RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 21-15 | 4.50 | 21 |
Atlanta Braves
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Acuna Jr. RF· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 19 | .235 | .350 | .363 |
| Drake Baldwin C· | 0-5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | .304 | .376 | .527 |
| Matt Olson 1B· | 2-5 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | .287 | .361 | .583 |
| Ozzie Albies 2B· | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | .305 | .348 | .476 |
| Austin Riley 3B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | .216 | .310 | .353 |
| Dominic Smith 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | .355 | .379 | .581 |
| Mauricio Dubon SS· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16 | .283 | .333 | .424 |
| Mike Yastrzemski LF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | .198 | .278 | .259 |
| Eli White CF· | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | .214 | .233 | .357 |
| Michael Harris II CF | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .326 | .363 | .581 |
| Jorge Mateo SS | 0-1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | .292 | .346 | .458 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Holmes SP· | 6.0 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 89-59 | 3.62 | 89 |
| Aaron Bummer RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22-16 | 3.52 | 22 |
| Joel Payamps RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22-14 | 7.11 | 22 |
| Robert Suarez RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 17-9 | 0.77 | 17 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 7th InningSchwarber grounded out to second.
- 7th InningPitch 12 : Ball In Play
- 7th InningPitch 11 : Strike 2 Foul
- 6th InningAcuña Jr. walked.
- 7th InningPitch 10 : Strike 2 Foul
- 6th InningPitch 8 : Ball 4
- 7th InningPitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul
- 6th InningPitch 7 : Ball 3
- 7th InningPitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul
Scoring Plays
- 6th InningMateo scored on Painter wild pitch.3–5
- 6th InningMateo scored on Painter wild pitch.3–5
- 3rd InningAcuña Jr. homered to left (410 feet), White scored.2–2
- 6th InningHarris II doubled to center, Dubón and Smith scored.3–4
- 5th InningHarper homered to left center (389 feet).3–2
- 3rd InningTurner homered to right (375 feet), Stubbs scored.2–0