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In The Rafters

SD VS ARI

Joshua Silvia
12–18 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Night GameOutdoor72°F · 4 mph wind · partly cloudy⚾ German Marquez vs Zac GallenMLB.TVPadres.TVDBACKS.TV
Result readSan Diego Padres

San Diego Padres 6 · Arizona Diamondbacks 4

Final
San Diego Padres24-16+0.1 net/g (SOS-adj -0.2) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 50%
Arizona Diamondbacks19-20-0.6 net/g (SOS-adj -0.3) · expected win rate 44% · last 10: 30%
Venue EdgeEstadio Alfredo Harp HelúHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

San Diego Padres is the model’s call — San Diego Padres on the margin numbers, San Diego Padres on the form numbers. Pitcher confirmation and bullpen availability can move this fastest.

Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: San Diego Padres at 68%. Actual: San Diego Padres by 2.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

San Diego Padres

Arizona Diamondbacks

Injury Report

Arizona Diamondbacks

Carlos Santana10-Day-ILPavin Smith60-Day-ILCristian Mena60-Day-ILJordan Lawlar60-Day-ILA.J. Puk60-Day-IL

San Diego Padres

Jake Cronenworth7-day ilGerman Marquez15-Day-ILBlake HuntDay-To-DayJhony Brito60-Day-ILLuis Campusano10-Day-IL
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

San Diego Padres
RL Ramon Laureano LF · #5 JM J. Merrill CF · #3 FT F. Tatis Jr. RF · #23 MM Manny Machado 3B · #13 XB X. Bogaerts SS · #2 JC J. Cronenworth 2B · #9 GS Gavin Sheets 1B · #30 YD Yu Darvish P · #11 FF Freddy Fermin C · #54
Arizona Diamondbacks
JB Jorge Barrosa LF · #1 AT Alek Thomas CF · #5 CC Corbin Carroll RF · #7 NA Nolan Arenado 3B · #28 GP G. Perdomo SS · #2 KM Ketel Marte 2B · #4 JF Jose Fernandez 1B · #11 ZG Zac Gallen P · #23 AC A. Castillo C · #25

Box Score

Highlights

  1. ScoreFrance homered to right (370 feet).9th Inning6–4
  2. ScoreThomas homered to right (400 feet), Fernandez scored.2nd Inning0–4
  3. 🏃 DoubleFernandez doubled to center, Arenado scored and Vargas scored.2nd Inning0–2
  4. ScoreFermin hit sacrifice fly to left, Bogaerts scored.7th Inning4–4
  5. ScoreSheets singled to right, Machado scored and Merrill scored, Bogaerts to second.7th Inning3–4
  6. 💣 Home RunLaureano hit sacrifice fly to right, Sheets scored on error, Cronenworth safe at second on throwing error by right fielder Carroll, France to third.7th Inning5–4

Scoring by Inning

Team123456789RHE
San Diego Padres000010401661
Arizona Diamondbacks040000000473

San Diego Padres

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Ramon Laureano LF·0-3300101222.255.314.468
Fernando Tatis Jr. RF·1-4401001118.250.330.292
Jackson Merrill CF·0-3310001121.204.278.357
Manny Machado 3B·1-4411000016.198.324.291
Xander Bogaerts SS·0-3310001322.280.362.430
Gavin Sheets 1B·1-4411200116.228.265.456
Ty France 1B·2-4422220015.265.306.559
Freddy Fermin C·1-3301100111.186.315.256
Jake Cronenworth 2B·0-2200001120.163.295.225

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
German Marquez SP·6.064412175-524.3875
Adrian Morejon RP1.010012029-205.9329
Jason Adam RP1.000000015-111.5915
Mason Miller RP1.000000013-90.0013

Arizona Diamondbacks

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Geraldo Perdomo SS·0-3300000113.250.350.393
Tim Tawa LF0-110000014.135.233.189
Jorge Barrosa LF0-110000004.207.258.414
Ketel Marte 2B·1-4401001117.240.303.390
Corbin Carroll RF·0-2200001018.289.400.566
Adrian Del Castillo C·0-4400000113.239.255.370
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. LF·0-440000007.050.095.050
Ildemaro Vargas 1B·1-4411000013.351.368.649
Nolan Arenado 3B·2-4412000014.273.293.432
Jose Fernandez 1B·2-4412200011.319.338.444
Alek Thomas CF·1-4411210018.197.240.394

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Zac Gallen SP·3.010003049-273.1449
Brandon Pfaadt RP3.024435156-365.5456
Taylor Clarke RP1.011010014-83.2914
Jonathan Loaisiga RP1.000001018-123.5518
Andrew Hoffmann RP1.021111124-132.3824

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 7th InningMerrill walked.
  2. 7th InningCarroll walked, Marte to second.
  3. 7th InningPitch 10 : Ball 4

Scoring Plays

  1. 9th InningFrance homered to right (370 feet).6–4
  2. 2nd InningThomas homered to right (400 feet), Fernandez scored.0–4
  3. 2nd InningFernandez doubled to center, Arenado scored and Vargas scored.0–2
  4. 7th InningFermin hit sacrifice fly to left, Bogaerts scored.4–4
  5. 7th InningSheets singled to right, Machado scored and Merrill scored, Bogaerts to second.3–4
  6. 7th InningLaureano hit sacrifice fly to right, Sheets scored on error, Cronenworth safe at second on throwing error by right fielder Carroll, France to third.5–4
  7. 5th InningFrance homered to right center.1–4

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