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InTheRafters.com

SEA @ STL

Joshua Silvia
12–18 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Day GameOutdoor1:15 PM CT73°F · 6 mph wind · mostly clear⚾ Bryan Woo vs Matthew LiberatoreMLB.TVCardinals.TVMariners.TV
Result readSeattle Mariners

Seattle Mariners 11 · St. Louis Cardinals 9

Final
Seattle Mariners19-22+0.0 net/g (SOS-adj +0.1) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 40%
St. Louis Cardinals23-17-1+0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.3) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 55%
Venue EdgeBusch StadiumHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

The model leans Seattle Mariners because St. Louis Cardinals owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and St. Louis Cardinals has the recent-form edge. Pitcher confirmation and bullpen availability can move this fastest.

Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: St. Louis Cardinals at 59%. Actual: Seattle Mariners by 2.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Seattle Mariners

St. Louis Cardinals

Injury Report

St. Louis Cardinals

Matt Pushard15-Day-ILRamon Urias10-Day-ILLars Nootbaar60-Day-ILIxan HendersonDay-To-DayVictor SantosDay-To-Day

Seattle Mariners

Patrick Wisdom10-Day-ILVictor Robles10-Day-ILBryce Miller15-Day-ILTeddy McGrawDay-To-DayJose Ferrerpaternity
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Seattle Mariners
RA R. Arozarena LF · #56 JR J. Rodriguez CF · #44 LR Luke Raley RF · #20 LR Leo Rivas 3B · #76 CR J.P. Crawford SS · #3 CY Cole Young 2B · #2 JN Josh Naylor 1B · #12 BW Bryan Woo P · #22 CR Cal Raleigh C · #29
St. Louis Cardinals
NC Nathan Church LF · #27 VI V. Scott II CF · #11 JW Jordan Walker RF · #18 NG Nolan Gorman 3B · #16 MW Masyn Winn SS · #0 JW JJ Wetherholt 2B · #26 AB Alec Burleson 1B · #41 ML M. Liberatore P · #32 IH Ivan Herrera C · #48

Box Score

Highlights

  1. ScoreYoung homered to right (423 feet).4th Inning5–7
  2. ScoreRodríguez homered to left (402 feet), Raleigh scored.1st Inning2–0
  3. ScoreCanzone singled to center, Young scored.6th Inning7–7
  4. ScoreArozarena hit sacrifice fly to center, Rodríguez scored.5th Inning6–7
  5. ScoreChurch homered to right center (396 feet).2nd Inning4–3
  6. ScoreChurch hit sacrifice fly to center, Gorman scored, Winn to second.3rd Inning4–5

Scoring by Inning

Team123456789RHE
Seattle Mariners22011102211190
St. Louis Cardinals2140002009140

Seattle Mariners

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Rob Refsnyder RF·1-330100018.094.189.188
Luke Raley RF0-110000014.280.341.560
Connor Joe 1B1-220120007.200.273.200
Cal Raleigh C·2-5512001118.202.290.376
Julio Rodriguez CF·3-6623210130.250.336.333
Josh Naylor 1B·2-5502000117.208.283.317
Randy Arozarena LF·1-4401100018.287.373.426
J.P. Crawford SS·1-4411001018.197.361.288
Mitch Garver C·2-4432001017.207.324.241
Cole Young 2B·3-4433110127.255.342.398
Will Wilson 3B·1-221121007.500.5002.000
Dominic Canzone RF1-110110004.276.338.534
Leo Rivas 3B1-110120002.154.273.200

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Bryan Woo SP·3.097701453-393.8653
Jose Ferrer RP2.020011029-182.0829
Cooper Criswell RP2.032203136-222.7736
Matt Brash RP1.000001013-70.0013
Andres Munoz RP1.000011014-76.5514

St. Louis Cardinals

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
JJ Wetherholt 2B·3-551311009.240.370.385
Ivan Herrera C·1-3311110115.237.400.409
Alec Burleson 1B·0-5500000114.255.339.408
Jordan Walker RF·1-4411000218.278.346.567
Nolan Gorman 3B·1-4411001122.224.299.353
Masyn Winn SS·2-5522100119.278.363.405
Nathan Church LF·2-4422420020.254.300.460
Pedro Pages C·3-3313211015.250.310.404
Thomas Saggese LF0-000000000.180.241.220
Yohel Pozo C0-000000000.125.125.188
Victor Scott II CF·1-4401000113.200.254.215

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Matthew Liberatore SP·3.185513364-474.7564
Gordon Graceffo RP0.22110006-41.266
Justin Bruihl RP1.000000013-95.0213
George Soriano RP1.021101015-124.7615
Ryne Stanek RP0.210000010-78.4410
JoJo Romero RP0.222200012-73.5512
Riley O'Brien RP1.042211039-271.2639
Matt Svanson RP0.200011018-910.5418

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 8th InningRodríguez singled to right, Joe to third.
  2. 5th InningNaylor grounded out to second, Rodríguez to third.
  3. 9th InningYoung hit by pitch, Garver to second, Crawford to third.
  4. 8th InningPitch 10 : Ball In Play
  5. 5th InningPitch 7 : Ball In Play

Scoring Plays

  1. 4th InningYoung homered to right (423 feet).5–7
  2. 1st InningRodríguez homered to left (402 feet), Raleigh scored.2–0
  3. 6th InningCanzone singled to center, Young scored.7–7
  4. 5th InningArozarena hit sacrifice fly to center, Rodríguez scored.6–7
  5. 2nd InningChurch homered to right center (396 feet).4–3
  6. 3rd InningChurch hit sacrifice fly to center, Gorman scored, Winn to second.4–5
  7. 3rd InningWinn singled to right, Walker scored, Gorman to third.4–4
  8. 8th InningJoe singled to right, Garver scored and Young scored.9–9
  9. 7th InningChurch homered to right center (386 feet), Winn scored.7–9
  10. 3rd InningPagés homered to left (392 feet), Winn scored.4–7
  11. 2nd InningWilson homered to left (384 feet), Garver scored.4–2
  12. 1st InningWetherholt homered to right (397 feet).2–1
  13. 9th InningRivas singled to center, Crawford scored and Garver scored, Young to second.11–9
  14. 1st InningHerrera homered to left center (429 feet).2–2

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