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InTheRafters.com

BOS @ BAL

Joshua Silvia
12–18 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Day GameOutdoor1:35 PM ET57°F · 9 mph wind · overcast⚾ Connelly Early vs Kyle BradishMLB.TVNESN+
Result readBoston Red Sox

Boston Red Sox 5 · Baltimore Orioles 3

Final
Boston Red Sox17-23-1-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.3) · expected win rate 47% · last 10: 55%
Baltimore Orioles18-23-1-1.0 net/g (SOS-adj -1.1) · expected win rate 41% · last 10: 30%
Venue EdgeOriole Park at Camden YardsHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

The model leans Boston Red Sox because Boston Red Sox owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and Boston Red Sox has the recent-form edge. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.

Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Boston Red Sox at 85%. Actual: Boston Red Sox by 2.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Boston Red Sox

Baltimore Orioles

Injury Report

Baltimore Orioles

Will RobertsonDay-To-DayTrevor Rogers15-Day-ILKeagan GilliesDay-To-DayJackson Holliday10-Day-ILLuis VazquezDay-To-Day

Boston Red Sox

Willson ContrerasDay-To-DayKutter Crawford15-Day-ILRoman Anthony10-Day-ILDanny Coulombe15-Day-ILGarrett Crochet15-Day-IL
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Boston Red Sox
JD Jarren Duran LF · #16 CR C. Rafaela CF · #3 WA Wilyer Abreu RF · #52 CD Caleb Durbin 3B · #5 TS Trevor Story SS · #10 MM Marcelo Mayer 2B · #11 WC W. Contreras 1B · #40 BB Brayan Bello P · #66 CN Carlos Narvaez C · #75
Baltimore Orioles
TW Taylor Ward LF · #3 LT Leody Taveras CF · #30 CC Colton Cowser RF · #17 CM Coby Mayo 3B · #16 GH G. Henderson SS · #2 JJ J. Jackson 2B · #82 PA Pete Alonso 1B · #25 CB Chris Bassitt P · #40 SB Samuel Basallo C · #29

Box Score

Highlights

  1. ScoreMonasterio singled to center, Durbin scored.5th Inning1–0
  2. ScoreContreras homered to left center (406 feet), Duran scored.5th Inning3–0
  3. ScoreHenderson homered to right center (391 feet).6th Inning5–2
  4. ScoreMayer singled to left, Rafaela scored.6th Inning5–1
  5. 🏃 TripleRafaela tripled to center, Abreu scored.6th Inning4–1
  6. ScoreBasallo homered to right (392 feet).5th Inning3–1

Scoring by Inning

Team123456789RHE
Boston Red Sox000032000570
Baltimore Orioles000011010361

Boston Red Sox

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Jarren Duran LF·0-4410001118.189.255.278
Willson Contreras 1B·1-3311211124.253.374.463
Roman Anthony LF·0-3300001219.217.356.313
Wilyer Abreu RF·1-3311001016.298.354.481
Ceddanne Rafaela CF·2-4412100113.276.351.402
Marcelo Mayer 2B·1-440110009.224.293.358
Caleb Durbin 3B·1-4411000122.169.260.270
Connor Wong C·0-3300001016.273.368.424
Andruw Monasterio SS·1-4401100020.244.311.415

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Connelly Early SP·6.242214292-592.8492
Zack Kelly RP0.10000004-33.864
Garrett Whitlock RP1.021101019-162.7019
Aroldis Chapman RP1.00000207-71.047

Baltimore Orioles

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Taylor Ward LF·0-3300001014.312.424.459
Gunnar Henderson SS·2-4412210113.210.280.487
Adley Rutschman C·1-4401000015.333.393.627
Pete Alonso 1B·0-4400000012.196.301.336
Tyler O'Neill RF·0-4400000316.216.310.297
Samuel Basallo C·2-441211019.233.325.452
Jeremiah Jackson 2B·0-3300000113.270.290.461
Dylan Beavers RF·0-3300000122.243.308.371
Blaze Alexander 3B·0-220000005.172.238.190
Colton Cowser RF1-111100003.200.274.236
Coby Mayo 3B0-000000000.188.273.362

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Kyle Bradish SP·5.043343188-524.2088
Grant Wolfram RP0.032200010-84.5010
Yennier Cano RP1.000000017-121.8617
Anthony Nunez RP1.000011016-101.3516
Rico Garcia RP1.000001010-70.6910
Andrew Kittredge RP1.000001016-100.0016

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 3rd InningContreras walked.
  2. 8th InningBeavers struck out looking.
  3. 6th InningDurbin safe at first on fielding error by second baseman Jackson, Mayer safe at third on error.
  4. 3rd InningPitch 8 : Ball 4
  5. 8th InningPitch 10 : Strike 3 Looking
  6. 6th InningPitch 8 : Ball In Play
  7. 3rd InningPitch 7 : Ball 3
  8. 8th InningPitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul
  9. 6th InningPitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

Scoring Plays

  1. 5th InningMonasterio singled to center, Durbin scored.1–0
  2. 5th InningContreras homered to left center (406 feet), Duran scored.3–0
  3. 6th InningHenderson homered to right center (391 feet).5–2
  4. 6th InningMayer singled to left, Rafaela scored.5–1
  5. 6th InningRafaela tripled to center, Abreu scored.4–1
  6. 5th InningBasallo homered to right (392 feet).3–1
  7. 8th InningHenderson singled to left, Cowser scored.5–3

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