PHI @ ATL
Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Day GameOutdoor1:35 PM ET⚾ Aaron Nola vs Chris SaleMLB.TVBravesVision
Result readAtlanta Braves
Philadelphia Phillies 2 · Atlanta Braves 6
Final
Philadelphia Phillies19-22-1-0.8 net/g (SOS-adj -0.7) · expected win rate 42% · last 10: 70%
Atlanta Braves28-13+2.1 net/g (SOS-adj +1.9) · expected win rate 71% · last 10: 60%
Venue EdgeTruist ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Two reasons the projection lands on Atlanta Braves: Atlanta Braves’s scoring margin profile and Philadelphia Phillies’s recent stretch. Pitcher confirmation and bullpen availability can move this fastest.
Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Atlanta Braves at 80%. Actual: Atlanta Braves by 4.
Pre-game pick: Atlanta Braves at 80%. Actual: Atlanta Braves by 4.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Philadelphia Phillies
- Cristopher Sanchez SP · #61
- Aaron Nola SP · #27
- Tim Mayza RP · #37
- Adolis Garcia RF · #53
Atlanta Braves
- Bryce Elder SP · #55
- Grant Holmes SP · #66
- Austin Riley 3B · #27
- Drake Baldwin C · #30
Injury Report
Atlanta Braves
Sean MurphyDay-To-DayDylan Dodd15-Day-ILRonald Acuna Jr.10-Day-ILBlake BurkhalterDay-To-DayEli White7-day il
Philadelphia Phillies
Christian McGowanDay-To-DayKyle Backhus15-Day-ILKeaton AnthonyDay-To-DayRene PintoDay-To-DayZach Pop15-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreSchwarber homered to right (377 feet), Marchán scored.2–6
- ScoreWhite homered to left (361 feet), Dubón scored.0–5
- ScoreOlson homered to right (399 feet), Acuña Jr. scored and Baldwin scored.0–3
- ScoreBaldwin singled to right, Acuña Jr. scored.0–6
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Atlanta Braves | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 6 | 10 | 1 |
Philadelphia Phillies
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trea Turner SS· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | .230 | .304 | .354 |
| Kyle Schwarber LF· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 27 | .196 | .344 | .520 |
| Bryce Harper 1B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14 | .260 | .345 | .500 |
| Felix Reyes LF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | .167 | .167 | .333 |
| Brandon Marsh LF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | .297 | .323 | .473 |
| Adolis Garcia RF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | .230 | .304 | .380 |
| Alec Bohm 3B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | .143 | .218 | .194 |
| Edmundo Sosa 2B· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | .263 | .300 | .421 |
| Bryson Stott 2B | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | .221 | .268 | .273 |
| Dylan Moore CF· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18 | .000 | .214 | .000 |
| Rafael Marchan C· | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | .098 | .140 | .171 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola SP· | 4.2 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 101-60 | 6.03 | 101 |
| Chase Shugart RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7-5 | 1.17 | 7 |
| Tim Mayza RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17-12 | 4.20 | 17 |
| Nolan Hoffman RP | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15-8 | 0.00 | 15 |
Atlanta Braves
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Acuna Jr. RF· | 2-3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 14 | .239 | .356 | .358 |
| Drake Baldwin C· | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | .311 | .388 | .521 |
| Matt Olson 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 22 | .296 | .374 | .609 |
| Ozzie Albies 2B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | .316 | .355 | .491 |
| Michael Harris II CF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 26 | .323 | .360 | .559 |
| Austin Riley 3B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | .209 | .298 | .345 |
| Mauricio Dubon SS· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | .283 | .330 | .434 |
| Eli White CF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 18 | .194 | .211 | .389 |
| Jorge Mateo SS· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | .286 | .333 | .429 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Sale SP· | 6.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 100-61 | 2.31 | 100 |
| Joel Payamps RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14-7 | 6.14 | 14 |
| Aaron Bummer RP | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 25-17 | 3.12 | 25 |
| Robert Suarez RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10-6 | 0.71 | 10 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 2nd InningReyes lined out to pitcher.
- 2nd InningPitch 10 : Ball In Play
- 8th InningSchwarber homered to right (377 feet), Marchán scored.2–6
- 8th InningMoore popped out to second.
Scoring Plays
- 8th InningSchwarber homered to right (377 feet), Marchán scored.2–6
- 2nd InningWhite homered to left (361 feet), Dubón scored.0–5
- 1st InningOlson homered to right (399 feet), Acuña Jr. scored and Baldwin scored.0–3
- 2nd InningBaldwin singled to right, Acuña Jr. scored.0–6