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In The Rafters

SD VS ARI

Joshua Silvia
12–18 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Night GameOutdoor72°F · 8 mph wind · partly cloudy⚾ Michael King vs Ryne NelsonMLB.TVPadres.TVDBACKS.TV
Result readArizona Diamondbacks

San Diego Padres 7 · Arizona Diamondbacks 12

Final
San Diego Padres24-16+0.1 net/g (SOS-adj -0.2) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 50%
Arizona Diamondbacks19-20-0.6 net/g (SOS-adj -0.3) · expected win rate 44% · last 10: 30%
Venue EdgeEstadio Alfredo Harp HelúHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Arizona Diamondbacks gets the model’s nod thanks to San Diego Padres’s margin advantage, with San Diego Padres’s recent run providing the second tip. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.

Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: San Diego Padres at 74%. Actual: Arizona Diamondbacks by 5.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

San Diego Padres

Arizona Diamondbacks

Injury Report

Arizona Diamondbacks

Carlos Santana10-Day-ILPavin Smith60-Day-ILCristian Mena60-Day-ILJordan Lawlar60-Day-ILA.J. Puk60-Day-IL

San Diego Padres

Jake Cronenworth7-day ilGerman Marquez15-Day-ILBlake HuntDay-To-DayJhony Brito60-Day-ILLuis Campusano10-Day-IL
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

San Diego Padres
RL Ramon Laureano LF · #5 JM J. Merrill CF · #3 FT F. Tatis Jr. RF · #23 MM Manny Machado 3B · #13 XB X. Bogaerts SS · #2 JC J. Cronenworth 2B · #9 GS Gavin Sheets 1B · #30 YD Yu Darvish P · #11 FF Freddy Fermin C · #54
Arizona Diamondbacks
JB Jorge Barrosa LF · #1 AT Alek Thomas CF · #5 CC Corbin Carroll RF · #7 NA Nolan Arenado 3B · #28 GP G. Perdomo SS · #2 KM Ketel Marte 2B · #4 JF Jose Fernandez 1B · #11 ZG Zac Gallen P · #23 AC A. Castillo C · #25

Box Score

Highlights

  1. ScoreVargas homered to right (360 feet).6th Inning7–2
  2. 🏃 TripleVargas tripled to right, Fernandez scored, Arenado scored and Thomas scored.8th Inning7–11
  3. ScoreFernandez homered to left (409 feet).5th Inning6–1
  4. ScoreMarte singled to right, Vargas scored.8th Inning7–12
  5. ScoreTawa homered to left (363 feet), Fernandez scored, Arenado scored and Thomas scored.7th Inning7–6
  6. ScoreMachado homered to right (395 feet), Tatis Jr. scored and Merrill scored.5th Inning6–0

Scoring by Inning

Team123456789RHE
San Diego Padres0120310007110
Arizona Diamondbacks00001164—12151

San Diego Padres

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Ramon Laureano LF·1-4401001216.255.318.459
Fernando Tatis Jr. RF·1-4421001018.250.333.290
Jackson Merrill CF·2-5512000025.214.283.359
Manny Machado 3B·2-5522520112.209.327.363
Xander Bogaerts SS·1-4411000110.278.358.423
Gavin Sheets 1B·1-4401000117.229.264.446
Miguel Andujar 3B·1-4401000116.311.344.443
Luis Campusano C·2-4412210014.350.395.750
Sung-Mun Song 3B0-000000000.000.000.000
Freddy Fermin C0-000000000.186.315.256
Jake Cronenworth 2B·0-4400000018.155.283.214

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Michael King SP·6.0322182106-652.41106
David Morgan RP0.144400110-85.6810
Bradgley Rodriguez RP0.222210020-152.0820
Ron Marinaccio RP0.154400024-166.1424
Wandy Peralta RP0.210010016-92.1916

Arizona Diamondbacks

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Ildemaro Vargas 1B·3-5533410122.367.383.722
Ketel Marte 2B·1-5501100019.238.298.381
Corbin Carroll RF·1-4411001229.287.400.552
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. LF·2-4402201121.125.192.167
Jorge Barrosa LF0-000000000.207.258.414
Adrian Del Castillo C·0-110000015.234.250.362
James McCann C0-4400000012.195.214.268
Jose Fernandez 1B·3-4433110115.342.359.500
Nolan Arenado 3B·2-3322001018.286.313.440
Alek Thomas CF·2-4422000117.213.253.400
Tim Tawa LF·1-4411410118.146.234.268

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Ryne Nelson SP·5.076624293-637.7193
Kevin Ginkel RP1.011100110-84.3810
Ryan Thompson RP1.02000006-54.226
Juan Morillo RP1.000002021-151.9821
Jonathan Loaisiga RP1.010000016-103.2916

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 3rd InningMerrill flied out to right.
  2. 8th InningCarroll singled to right, Marte to third.
  3. 8th InningCronenworth grounded out to first.
  4. 3rd InningThomas struck out swinging.
  5. 3rd InningPitch 9 : Ball In Play
  6. 2nd InningCronenworth grounded out to pitcher.

Scoring Plays

  1. 6th InningVargas homered to right (360 feet).7–2
  2. 8th InningVargas tripled to right, Fernandez scored, Arenado scored and Thomas scored.7–11
  3. 5th InningFernandez homered to left (409 feet).6–1
  4. 8th InningMarte singled to right, Vargas scored.7–12
  5. 7th InningTawa homered to left (363 feet), Fernandez scored, Arenado scored and Thomas scored.7–6
  6. 5th InningMachado homered to right (395 feet), Tatis Jr. scored and Merrill scored.6–0
  7. 2nd InningCampusano doubled to left, Bogaerts scored, Sheets to third.1–0
  8. 7th InningGurriel Jr. doubled to left, Carroll scored and Vargas scored.7–8
  9. 6th InningCampusano homered to center (421 feet).7–1
  10. 3rd InningMachado homered to center (436 feet), Tatis Jr. scored.3–0

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