SEA @ STL
Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Day GameOutdoor1:15 PM CT76°F · 8 mph wind · overcast⚾ Emerson Hancock vs Michael McGreevyMLB.TVCardinals.TVMariners.TV
Result readSeattle Mariners
Seattle Mariners 3 · St. Louis Cardinals 2
Final
Seattle Mariners19-22+0.0 net/g (SOS-adj +0.1) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 40%
St. Louis Cardinals23-17-1+0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.3) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 55%
Venue EdgeBusch StadiumHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Two reasons the projection lands on Seattle Mariners: St. Louis Cardinals’s scoring margin profile and St. Louis Cardinals’s recent stretch. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: St. Louis Cardinals at 62%. Actual: Seattle Mariners by 1.
Pre-game pick: St. Louis Cardinals at 62%. Actual: Seattle Mariners by 1.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Seattle Mariners
- Bryan Woo SP · #22
- George Kirby SP · #68
- Cal Raleigh C · #29
- Cole Young 2B · #2
St. Louis Cardinals
- Matthew Liberatore SP · #32
- Andre Pallante SP · #53
- Ivan Herrera C · #48
- JJ Wetherholt 2B · #26
Injury Report
St. Louis Cardinals
Matt Pushard15-Day-ILRamon Urias10-Day-ILLars Nootbaar60-Day-ILIxan HendersonDay-To-DayVictor SantosDay-To-Day
Seattle Mariners
Patrick Wisdom10-Day-ILVictor Robles10-Day-ILBryce Miller15-Day-ILTeddy McGrawDay-To-DayJose Ferrerpaternity
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreRefsnyder homered to left center (412 feet).3–2
- ScoreYoung singled to right, Joe scored.2–2
- ScoreChurch homered to right (407 feet).1–2
- ScoreRaleigh homered to right center (401 feet).1–1
- ScoreWetherholt homered to right center (375 feet).0–1
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Seattle Mariners
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Crawford SS· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 22 | .186 | .345 | .271 |
| Cal Raleigh C· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17 | .204 | .289 | .398 |
| Julio Rodriguez CF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | .250 | .333 | .330 |
| Randy Arozarena LF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 21 | .276 | .361 | .410 |
| Luke Raley RF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | .269 | .329 | .538 |
| Rob Refsnyder RF | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | .121 | .211 | .303 |
| Dominic Canzone RF· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | .279 | .338 | .525 |
| Mitch Garver C | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | .200 | .314 | .233 |
| Connor Joe 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20 | .214 | .267 | .286 |
| Cole Young 2B· | 2-3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | .267 | .351 | .406 |
| Leo Rivas 3B· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | .162 | .275 | .206 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson Hancock SP· | 6.0 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 94-53 | 2.86 | 94 |
| Gabe Speier RP | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15-8 | 2.53 | 15 |
| Eduard Bazardo RP | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12-11 | 1.46 | 12 |
| Jose Ferrer RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11-8 | 1.93 | 11 |
St. Louis Cardinals
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Wetherholt 2B· | 1-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13 | .238 | .363 | .406 |
| Ivan Herrera C· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 22 | .240 | .403 | .417 |
| Alec Burleson 1B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | .245 | .328 | .392 |
| Jordan Walker RF· | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 13 | .283 | .360 | .566 |
| Nolan Gorman 3B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | .225 | .297 | .348 |
| Masyn Winn SS· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | .265 | .347 | .386 |
| Nathan Church LF· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | .269 | .311 | .507 |
| Ramon Urias 3B· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | .180 | .288 | .360 |
| Victor Scott II CF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | .191 | .243 | .206 |
| Yohel Pozo C | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .118 | .118 | .176 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael McGreevy SP· | 6.0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 98-65 | 2.97 | 98 |
| Matt Svanson RP | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16-12 | 10.43 | 16 |
| Ryne Stanek RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 22-15 | 7.71 | 22 |
| JoJo Romero RP | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 21-12 | 3.95 | 21 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 8th InningCrawford struck out looking.
- 9th InningRefsnyder homered to left center (412 feet).3–2
- 8th InningRodríguez struck out swinging.
- 8th InningPitch 8 : Strike 3 Looking
Scoring Plays
- 9th InningRefsnyder homered to left center (412 feet).3–2
- 7th InningYoung singled to right, Joe scored.2–2
- 6th InningChurch homered to right (407 feet).1–2
- 4th InningRaleigh homered to right center (401 feet).1–1
- 3rd InningWetherholt homered to right center (375 feet).0–1