MIA @ LAD
Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameOutdoor7:10 PM PT56°F · 1 mph wind · mostly clear⚾ Chris Paddack vs Yoshinobu YamamotoESPN UnlmtdMLB.TVMarlins.TV
Result readLos Angeles Dodgers
Miami Marlins 4 · Los Angeles Dodgers 5
Final
Miami Marlins19-22-0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.0) · expected win rate 49% · last 10: 40%
Los Angeles Dodgers24-16+1.7 net/g (SOS-adj +1.6) · expected win rate 68% · last 10: 40%
Venue EdgeDodger StadiumHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
The model leans Los Angeles Dodgers because Los Angeles Dodgers owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and Los Angeles Dodgers has the recent-form edge. Pitcher confirmation and bullpen availability can move this fastest.
Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Los Angeles Dodgers at 75%. Actual: Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.
Pre-game pick: Los Angeles Dodgers at 75%. Actual: Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Miami Marlins
- Eury Perez SP · #39
- Sandy Alcantara SP · #22
- Jakob Marsee CF · #87
- Xavier Edwards 2B · #9
Los Angeles Dodgers
- Emmet Sheehan SP · #80
- Tyler Glasnow SP · #31
- Andy Pages CF · #44
- Shohei Ohtani DH · #17
Injury Report
Los Angeles Dodgers
Mookie Betts10-Day-ILBen Casparius15-Day-ILTyler Glasnow15-Day-ILGavin Stone60-Day-ILBrusdar Graterol15-Day-IL
Miami Marlins
Owen CaissieDay-To-DayPete Fairbanks15-Day-ILGriffin Conine10-Day-ILRonny Henriquez60-Day-ILJesus TinocoOut
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreOhtani hit a ground rule double, Pages scored, Rushing to third.4–3
- ScoreT. Hernández singled to center, Ohtani scored and Freeman scored.0–2
- ScoreHicks homered to right (348 feet), Marsee scored and Edwards scored.4–2
- ScoreTucker singled to center, Ohtani scored and Rushing scored, Freeman to second.4–5
- ScoreLopez scored, Sanoja safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Kim, Ramírez to second, Edwards to third.1–2
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 1 |
Miami Marlins
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakob Marsee CF· | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 21 | .191 | .313 | .282 |
| Kyle Stowers LF· | 0-5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | .222 | .323 | .333 |
| Otto Lopez SS· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 17 | .312 | .356 | .486 |
| Xavier Edwards 2B· | 0-1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 21 | .340 | .435 | .462 |
| Liam Hicks C· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16 | .311 | .350 | .544 |
| Agustin Ramirez C· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | .235 | .301 | .363 |
| Owen Caissie RF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 16 | .207 | .256 | .354 |
| Esteury Ruiz CF | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Javier Sanoja 3B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | .317 | .379 | .367 |
| Connor Norby 1B· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14 | .233 | .337 | .395 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Paddack SP· | 4.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 67-43 | 6.11 | 67 |
| John King RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7-5 | 0.75 | 7 |
| Michael Petersen RP | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 26-16 | 3.00 | 26 |
| Andrew Nardi RP | 0.2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 24-16 | 7.20 | 24 |
| Calvin Faucher RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10-6 | 5.40 | 10 |
| Pete Fairbanks RP | 0.1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 23-9 | 10.00 | 23 |
| Tyler Phillips RP | 0.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6-5 | 1.56 | 6 |
Los Angeles Dodgers
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani DH· | 3-5 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | .278 | .398 | .500 |
| Freddie Freeman 1B· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 17 | .271 | .345 | .439 |
| Will Smith C· | 0-5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 24 | .250 | .319 | .369 |
| Kyle Tucker RF· | 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | .236 | .320 | .364 |
| Teoscar Hernandez LF· | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 19 | .245 | .314 | .415 |
| Max Muncy 3B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | .298 | .389 | .617 |
| Andy Pages CF· | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20 | .327 | .374 | .538 |
| Hyeseong Kim SS· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | .319 | .389 | .426 |
| Alex Call LF | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | .308 | .455 | .385 |
| Santiago Espinal 3B | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .217 | .217 | .304 |
| Dalton Rushing C | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | .385 | .467 | .974 |
| Alex Freeland 2B· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | .229 | .295 | .329 |
| Miguel Rojas SS | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | .349 | .383 | .488 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto SP· | 5.0 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 87-56 | 2.87 | 87 |
| Alex Vesia RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 23-12 | 1.74 | 23 |
| Tanner Scott RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 17-12 | 2.19 | 17 |
| Edgardo Henriquez RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9-5 | 3.86 | 9 |
| Jake Eder RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4-3 | 3.00 | 4 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 6th InningTucker struck out looking.
- 1st InningMarsee walked.
- 9th InningPages walked.
- 6th InningPitch 9 : Strike 3 Looking
Scoring Plays
- 9th InningOhtani hit a ground rule double, Pages scored, Rushing to third.4–3
- 1st InningT. Hernández singled to center, Ohtani scored and Freeman scored.0–2
- 5th InningHicks homered to right (348 feet), Marsee scored and Edwards scored.4–2
- 9th InningTucker singled to center, Ohtani scored and Rushing scored, Freeman to second.4–5
- 4th InningLopez scored, Sanoja safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Kim, Ramírez to second, Edwards to third.1–2