SEA @ MIN
Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameOutdoor6:40 PM CT⚾ Luis Castillo vs Connor PrielippMLB.TVTwins.TVMariners.TV
Result readMinnesota Twins
Seattle Mariners 4 · Minnesota Twins 11
Final
Seattle Mariners19-22+0.0 net/g (SOS-adj +0.1) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 40%
Minnesota Twins18-23-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.5) · expected win rate 47% · last 10: 50%
Venue EdgeTarget FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Pick goes to Minnesota Twins on the back of Seattle Mariners’s margin work and Minnesota Twins’s last-ten momentum. Bullpen rest day is the sneakiest input — a long man on the mound erases a 3-run lead in two innings.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Seattle Mariners at 66%. Actual: Minnesota Twins by 7.
Pre-game pick: Seattle Mariners at 66%. Actual: Minnesota Twins by 7.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Seattle Mariners
- Bryan Woo SP · #22
- George Kirby SP · #68
- Cal Raleigh C · #29
- Cole Young 2B · #2
Minnesota Twins
- Bailey Ober SP · #17
- Joe Ryan SP · #41
- Josh Bell 1B · #56
- Luke Keaschall 2B · #15
Injury Report
Minnesota Twins
Cory LewisDay-To-DayGarrett Acton15-Day-ILCole Sands15-Day-ILJulian MerryweatherDay-To-DayCody Laweryson15-Day-IL
Seattle Mariners
Patrick Wisdom10-Day-ILVictor Robles10-Day-ILBryce Miller15-Day-ILTeddy McGrawDay-To-DayJose Ferrerpaternity
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreClemens singled to center, Outman scored and Jeffers scored.4–11
- ScoreYoung hit sacrifice fly to third, Crawford scored, Garver to second.2–7
- ScoreJeffers singled to right, Larnach scored, Bell to second.0–2
- ScoreGarver singled to left, Arozarena scored, Crawford to third.1–7
- ScoreClemens homered to right (379 feet), Bell scored and Jeffers scored.0–5
- 🏃 DoubleKeaschall doubled to right, Bell scored.0–1
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Minnesota Twins | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | — | 11 | 12 | 0 |
Seattle Mariners
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Refsnyder RF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .135 | .214 | .297 |
| Cal Raleigh C· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 13 | .205 | .288 | .419 |
| Julio Rodriguez CF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | .241 | .323 | .319 |
| Josh Naylor 1B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13 | .202 | .282 | .308 |
| Randy Arozarena LF· | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 13 | .287 | .373 | .417 |
| J.P. Crawford SS· | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20 | .178 | .341 | .260 |
| Mitch Garver C· | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 16 | .219 | .359 | .250 |
| Cole Young 2B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | .260 | .339 | .394 |
| Leo Rivas 3B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | .155 | .265 | .197 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Castillo SP· | 5.0 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 97-62 | 6.35 | 97 |
| Cole Wilcox RP | 1.1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 40-26 | 6.35 | 40 |
| Alex Hoppe RP | 1.2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 42-22 | 16.20 | 42 |
Minnesota Twins
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton CF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 19 | .229 | .292 | .450 |
| Brooks Lee SS· | 0-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21 | .242 | .310 | .429 |
| Trevor Larnach LF· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 19 | .259 | .419 | .397 |
| James Outman CF | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .115 | .179 | .192 |
| Josh Bell 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19 | .235 | .333 | .378 |
| Ryan Jeffers C· | 2-4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21 | .282 | .414 | .465 |
| Kody Clemens 1B· | 2-5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | .194 | .275 | .371 |
| Luke Keaschall 2B· | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 21 | .218 | .269 | .282 |
| Matt Wallner RF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 24 | .172 | .274 | .290 |
| Tristan Gray 3B· | 2-3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 19 | .292 | .340 | .500 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Prielipp SP· | 5.0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 84-49 | 4.00 | 84 |
| Andrew Morris RP | 3.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 40-26 | 7.20 | 40 |
| Taylor Rogers RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14-5 | 6.52 | 14 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 6th InningBell flied out to center.
- 1st InningLarnach popped out to second.
- 7th InningJeffers walked.
- 7th InningYoung struck out swinging.
- 6th InningPitch 7 : Ball In Play
Scoring Plays
- 8th InningClemens singled to center, Outman scored and Jeffers scored.4–11
- 5th InningYoung hit sacrifice fly to third, Crawford scored, Garver to second.2–7
- 3rd InningJeffers singled to right, Larnach scored, Bell to second.0–2
- 5th InningGarver singled to left, Arozarena scored, Crawford to third.1–7
- 3rd InningClemens homered to right (379 feet), Bell scored and Jeffers scored.0–5
- 2nd InningKeaschall doubled to right, Bell scored.0–1
- 8th InningJeffers singled to center, Lee scored, Outman to third.4–9
- 8th InningRaleigh homered to right (396 feet), Refsnyder scored.4–8
- 6th InningLarnach reached on infield single to second, Gray scored, Lee to third.2–8
- 4th InningBuxton homered to left (396 feet), Gray scored.0–7