TB @ CLE
Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameOutdoor6:10 PM ET62°F · 20 mph wind · overcast❄️ Cold-weather game · 20 mph wind⚾ Steven Matz vs Parker MessickMLB.TVCLEGuardians.TVRays.TV
Result readTampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays 3 · Cleveland Guardians 2
Final
Tampa Bay Rays26-13-1+0.5 net/g (SOS-adj +0.6) · expected win rate 56% · last 10: 85%
Cleveland Guardians21-21-1-0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.1) · expected win rate 49% · last 10: 50%
Venue EdgeProgressive FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
The model leans Tampa Bay Rays because Tampa Bay Rays owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and Tampa Bay Rays has the recent-form edge. Lineup vs. starter L/R splits matter more than season ERAs in a one-game sample.
Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Tampa Bay Rays at 79%. Actual: Tampa Bay Rays by 1.
Pre-game pick: Tampa Bay Rays at 79%. Actual: Tampa Bay Rays by 1.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Tampa Bay Rays
- Drew Rasmussen SP · #57
- Nick Martinez SP · #28
- Cole Sulser RP · #71
- Griffin Jax RP · #22
Cleveland Guardians
- Gavin Williams SP · #32
- Joey Cantillo SP · #54
- Jose Ramirez 3B · #11
- Brayan Rocchio SS · #4
Injury Report
Cleveland Guardians
Gabriel Arias10-Day-ILShawn Armstrong15-Day-ILAndrew Walters15-Day-ILCarlos HernandezDay-To-Day
Tampa Bay Rays
Ty JohnsonDay-To-DayJohn RooneyDay-To-DayGavin Lux10-Day-ILTJ NicholsDay-To-DayAustin VernonDay-To-Day
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreVilade singled to center, Palacios scored.3–2
- ScoreVilade singled to right, Díaz scored.1–2
- ScoreAranda homered to right (373 feet).2–2
- ScoreSchneemann homered to left center (386 feet), Fry scored.0–2
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Tampa Bay Rays
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yandy Diaz 1B· | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 26 | .327 | .424 | .486 |
| Jonathan Aranda 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 13 | .228 | .347 | .475 |
| Junior Caminero 3B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | .259 | .333 | .500 |
| Richie Palacios 2B | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .256 | .412 | .359 |
| Ryan Vilade RF· | 3-4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .344 | .400 | .406 |
| Jonny DeLuca RF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | .283 | .317 | .467 |
| Chandler Simpson LF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | .309 | .342 | .345 |
| Ben Williamson 2B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | .247 | .318 | .338 |
| Nick Fortes C· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | .292 | .338 | .403 |
| Cedric Mullins CF | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .138 | .200 | .253 |
| Hunter Feduccia C | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | .241 | .371 | .241 |
| Taylor Walls SS· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 19 | .200 | .279 | .236 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Matz SP· | 7.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 95-67 | 4.31 | 95 |
| Ian Seymour RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 18-10 | 7.11 | 18 |
| Bryan Baker RP | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 23-15 | 3.18 | 23 |
Cleveland Guardians
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Kwan CF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .217 | .300 | .274 |
| Angel Martinez LF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | .276 | .315 | .506 |
| Jose Ramirez 3B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | .229 | .354 | .450 |
| Rhys Hoskins 1B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | .203 | .345 | .319 |
| Kyle Manzardo 1B | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | .203 | .292 | .266 |
| Chase DeLauter RF· | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | .245 | .333 | .489 |
| David Fry RF· | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 22 | .222 | .364 | .333 |
| George Valera LF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | .222 | .243 | .306 |
| Daniel Schneemann CF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | .314 | .392 | .586 |
| Austin Hedges C· | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13 | .286 | .333 | .343 |
| Bo Naylor C | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .129 | .194 | .194 |
| Brayan Rocchio SS· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | .269 | .352 | .398 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Messick SP· | 5.2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 95-58 | 1.73 | 95 |
| Matt Festa RP | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3-2 | 5.27 | 3 |
| Erik Sabrowski RP | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 20-13 | 2.70 | 20 |
| Hunter Gaddis RP | 0.1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13-10 | 6.75 | 13 |
| Colin Holderman RP | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 23-14 | 2.84 | 23 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 5th InningFry walked.
- 8th InningHedges walked.
- 5th InningPitch 10 : Ball 4
- 8th InningPitch 6 : Ball 4
Scoring Plays
- 8th InningVilade singled to center, Palacios scored.3–2
- 6th InningVilade singled to right, Díaz scored.1–2
- 8th InningAranda homered to right (373 feet).2–2
- 5th InningSchneemann homered to left center (386 feet), Fry scored.0–2