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In The Rafters

SEA @ MIN

Joshua Silvia
12–18 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Day GameOutdoor12:40 PM CT⚾ George Kirby vs Taj BradleyMLB.TVTwins.TVMariners.TV
Result readSeattle Mariners

Seattle Mariners 5 · Minnesota Twins 3

Final
Seattle Mariners19-22+0.0 net/g (SOS-adj +0.1) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 40%
Minnesota Twins18-23-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.5) · expected win rate 47% · last 10: 50%
Venue EdgeTarget FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

The model leans Seattle Mariners because Seattle Mariners owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and Minnesota Twins has the recent-form edge. Pitcher confirmation and bullpen availability can move this fastest.

Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Seattle Mariners at 60%. Actual: Seattle Mariners by 2.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Seattle Mariners

Minnesota Twins

Injury Report

Minnesota Twins

Cory LewisDay-To-DayGarrett Acton15-Day-ILCole Sands15-Day-ILJulian MerryweatherDay-To-DayCody Laweryson15-Day-IL

Seattle Mariners

Patrick Wisdom10-Day-ILVictor Robles10-Day-ILBryce Miller15-Day-ILTeddy McGrawDay-To-DayJose Ferrerpaternity
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Seattle Mariners
RA R. Arozarena LF · #56 JR J. Rodriguez CF · #44 LR Luke Raley RF · #20 LR Leo Rivas 3B · #76 CR J.P. Crawford SS · #3 CY Cole Young 2B · #2 JN Josh Naylor 1B · #12 BW Bryan Woo P · #22 CR Cal Raleigh C · #29
Minnesota Twins
AM Austin Martin LF · #16 BB Byron Buxton CF · #25 MW Matt Wallner RF · #38 RL Royce Lewis 3B · #23 BL Brooks Lee SS · #22 LK Luke Keaschall 2B · #15 JB Josh Bell 1B · #56 BO Bailey Ober P · #17 RJ Ryan Jeffers C · #27

Box Score

Highlights

  1. ScoreRaleigh hit sacrifice fly to center, Young scored, Wilson to third.9th Inning5–3
  2. ScoreYoung singled to center, Arozarena scored and Rivas scored.9th Inning4–3
  3. 🏃 DoubleYoung doubled to center, Canzone scored.7th Inning2–2
  4. ScoreLee singled to right, Clemens scored and Jeffers scored, Keaschall to second.4th Inning1–2
  5. ScoreCaratini singled to left, Outman scored.8th Inning2–3
  6. ScoreCrawford homered to right (374 feet).3rd Inning1–0

Scoring by Inning

Team123456789RHE
Seattle Mariners001000103570
Minnesota Twins0002000103120

Seattle Mariners

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
J.P. Crawford SS·2-3312112020.200.366.313
Cal Raleigh C·0-3300101129.192.275.392
Julio Rodriguez CF·1-5501000117.254.329.349
Josh Naylor 1B·0-4400000116.212.286.336
Randy Arozarena LF·0-3310001124.289.381.439
Luke Raley RF·0-4400000316.244.301.488
Dominic Canzone RF·2-4412000219.284.338.522
Leo Rivas 3B0-001000000.149.264.189
Cole Young 2B·2-4412300018.286.357.420
Will Wilson 3B·0-3300001118.200.333.800

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
George Kirby SP·5.282225097-643.0097
Eduard Bazardo RP0.210000010-61.2910
Jose Ferrer RP0.200001011-71.8411
Matt Brash RP0.00000002-10.002
Gabe Speier RP0.231112030-202.9230
Cooper Criswell RP0.10000003-22.513
Andres Munoz RP1.000002015-96.0015

Minnesota Twins

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Byron Buxton CF·1-5501000113.235.292.462
Trevor Larnach LF·2-3302000012.277.420.415
Austin Martin LF0-220000008.311.476.426
Josh Bell 1B·0-5500000223.224.317.355
Ryan Jeffers C·2-4412000115.293.418.467
James Outman CF0-111000015.111.172.185
Kody Clemens 1B·2-3312001119.206.299.382
Luke Keaschall 2B·1-4401000119.222.276.282
Matt Wallner RF·0-2200001216.168.275.284
Victor Caratini C1-110110002.221.312.273
Brooks Lee SS·2-4402200118.253.317.432
Royce Lewis 3B·1-3301001018.206.315.381

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Taj Bradley SP·7.0422271114-732.85114
Anthony Banda RP1.000012022-148.0322
Eric Orze RP0.123321028-135.2528
Taylor Rogers RP0.210000013-96.1013

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 8th InningClemens struck out swinging.
  2. 8th InningLewis walked.
  3. 8th InningPitch 8 : Strike 3 Swinging
  4. 9th InningRaleigh hit sacrifice fly to center, Young scored, Wilson to third.5–3
  5. 9th InningYoung singled to center, Arozarena scored and Rivas scored.4–3
  6. 8th InningPitch 8 : Ball 4
  7. 8th InningPitch 7 : Ball 2

Scoring Plays

  1. 9th InningRaleigh hit sacrifice fly to center, Young scored, Wilson to third.5–3
  2. 9th InningYoung singled to center, Arozarena scored and Rivas scored.4–3
  3. 7th InningYoung doubled to center, Canzone scored.2–2
  4. 4th InningLee singled to right, Clemens scored and Jeffers scored, Keaschall to second.1–2
  5. 8th InningCaratini singled to left, Outman scored.2–3
  6. 3rd InningCrawford homered to right (374 feet).1–0

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