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InTheRafters.com

COL @ CIN

Joshua Silvia
12–18 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Day GameOutdoor12:40 PM ET⚾ Michael Lorenzen vs Andrew AbbottESPN UnlmtdMLB.TVRockies.TVReds.TV
Result readCincinnati Reds

Colorado Rockies 4 · Cincinnati Reds 6

Final
Colorado Rockies16-25-2-0.8 net/g (SOS-adj -0.9) · expected win rate 42% · last 10: 25%
Cincinnati Reds22-19-0.8 net/g (SOS-adj -0.8) · expected win rate 42% · last 10: 20%
Venue EdgeGreat American Ball ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Cincinnati Reds is the model’s call — Cincinnati Reds on the margin numbers, Colorado Rockies on the form numbers. Pitcher confirmation and bullpen availability can move this fastest.

Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Colorado Rockies at 53%. Actual: Cincinnati Reds by 2.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Colorado Rockies

Cincinnati Reds

Injury Report

Cincinnati Reds

Josh StaumontDay-To-DayCaleb Ferguson15-Day-ILRhett LowderOutEugenio Suarez10-Day-ILConnor BurnsDay-To-Day

Colorado Rockies

Jimmy HergetBereavementJared ThomasDay-To-DayMcCade Brown60-Day-ILJeff Criswell60-Day-ILRyan Feltner15-Day-IL
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Colorado Rockies
MM Mickey Moniak LF · #22 BD Brenton Doyle CF · #9 TJ Troy Johnston RF · #20 KK Kyle Karros 3B · #12 ET Ezequiel Tovar SS · #14 EJ Edouard Julien 2B · #6 TR TJ Rumfield 1B · #7 ML M. Lorenzen P · #24 HG Hunter Goodman C · #15
Cincinnati Reds
SS Spencer Steer LF · #7 TF TJ Friedl CF · #29 WB Will Benson RF · #30 KH Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B · #3 EC E. Cruz SS · #44 MM Matt McLain 2B · #9 SS Sal Stewart 1B · #27 AA Andrew Abbott P · #41 TS T. Stephenson C · #37

Box Score

Highlights

  1. ScoreFreeman homered to right (357 feet), Doyle scored.1st Inning2–0
  2. 🏃 DoubleSteer doubled to left, Stephenson scored.8th Inning2–6
  3. ScoreMoniak singled to right, Karros scored, Johnston to third.9th Inning3–6
  4. ScoreMyers grounded out to second, Stewart scored, Stephenson to third.8th Inning2–5
  5. ScoreFriedl homered to right center (360 feet), Steer scored.5th Inning2–3
  6. ScoreLowe homered to center (399 feet).2nd Inning2–1

Scoring by Inning

Team123456789RHE
Colorado Rockies200000002490
Cincinnati Reds01002102—670

Colorado Rockies

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Jordan Beck LF·1-3301000111.161.209.242
Mickey Moniak LF1-220110018.315.361.652
Brenton Doyle CF·0-221000108.214.290.286
Jake McCarthy LF0-000010107.268.333.393
Hunter Goodman C·0-5500000313.257.331.560
Tyler Freeman RF·2-4412210013.286.355.357
Willi Castro 2B·0-440000018.247.318.351
TJ Rumfield 1B·1-4401000114.263.331.412
Kyle Karros 3B·2-4412000112.207.330.272
Ezequiel Tovar SS·1-110100108.202.248.298
Edouard Julien 2B0-110000007.304.396.443
Troy Johnston RF·1-4411000116.313.371.448

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Michael Lorenzen SP·5.144435285-496.0985
Antonio Senzatela RP1.210011016-120.4616
Victor Vodnik RP1.022211025-137.8225

Cincinnati Reds

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
TJ Friedl CF·1-4411210113.187.269.280
Matt McLain 2B·0-4400000112.211.328.316
Elly De La Cruz SS·1-4401000214.282.355.565
Sal Stewart 1B·0-3310001012.281.373.570
Nathaniel Lowe 1B·2-3322111011.288.373.654
Tyler Stephenson C·1-4411000113.178.291.301
JJ Bleday LF·0-1100002013.333.556.833
Dane Myers CF0-110010003.286.423.357
Spencer Steer LF·2-3312201016.237.318.454
Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B0-000000000.130.193.208
Will Benson RF·0-4400000219.167.300.310

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Andrew Abbott SP·6.052225186-575.9786
Connor Phillips RP1.000013023-132.0423
Tony Santillan RP1.01000105-51.985
Emilio Pagan RP1.032200011-105.4011

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 8th InningBenson struck out swinging.
  2. 8th InningPitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging
  3. 7th InningJulien hit by pitch.
  4. 8th InningPitch 6 : Ball 3
  5. 7th InningMcCarthy walked, Julien to second.

Scoring Plays

  1. 1st InningFreeman homered to right (357 feet), Doyle scored.2–0
  2. 8th InningSteer doubled to left, Stephenson scored.2–6
  3. 9th InningMoniak singled to right, Karros scored, Johnston to third.3–6
  4. 8th InningMyers grounded out to second, Stewart scored, Stephenson to third.2–5
  5. 5th InningFriedl homered to right center (360 feet), Steer scored.2–3
  6. 2nd InningLowe homered to center (399 feet).2–1
  7. 9th InningMcCarthy hit sacrifice fly to right, Johnston scored.4–6
  8. 6th InningSteer singled to left, Lowe scored, Bleday to third.2–4

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