InTheRafters.com

DET @ ATL

Joshua Silvia
11–16 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Day GameOutdoor12:15 PM ET71°F · 9 mph wind · overcast⚾ Framber Valdez vs Bryce ElderMLB.TVBravesVisionTigers.TV
Result readDetroit Tigers

Detroit Tigers 5 · Atlanta Braves 2

Final
Detroit Tigers18-20+0.2 net/g (SOS-adj +0.2) · expected win rate 52% · last 10: 40%
Atlanta Braves26-12+2.1 net/g (SOS-adj +1.7) · expected win rate 70% · last 10: 70%
Venue EdgeTruist ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

The model leans Detroit Tigers because Atlanta Braves owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and Atlanta Braves has the recent-form edge. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.

Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Atlanta Braves at 83%. Actual: Detroit Tigers by 3.

Players to Watch

Detroit Tigers

Atlanta Braves

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Injury Report

Atlanta Braves

Jorge MateoDay-To-DayDylan Dodd15-Day-ILBlake BurkhalterDay-To-DayHa-Seong Kim10-Day-ILRonald Acuna Jr.10-Day-IL

Detroit Tigers

Max AndersonDay-To-DayTroy WatsonDay-To-DayConnor Seabold15-Day-ILFramber ValdezSuspensionGleyber Torres10-Day-IL

On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Detroit Tigers
RG Riley Greene LF · #31 MV Matt Vierling CF · #8 KC K. Carpenter RF · #30 CK Colt Keith 3B · #33 KM K. McGonigle SS · #7 GT Gleyber Torres 2B · #25 ST S. Torkelson 1B · #20 FV Framber Valdez P · #59 DD Dillon Dingler C · #13
Atlanta Braves
MY M. Yastrzemski LF · #18 MI M. Harris II CF · #23 RA R. Acuna Jr. RF · #13 AR Austin Riley 3B · #27 MD Mauricio Dubon SS · #14 OA Ozzie Albies 2B · #1 MO Matt Olson 1B · #28 BE Bryce Elder P · #55 DB Drake Baldwin C · #30

Box Score

Highlights

  1. 💣 Home RunDingler doubled to left, Vierling scored, Lee thrown out at home.9th Inning5–2
  2. ScoreTorres hit sacrifice fly to center, Vierling scored.8th Inning3–2
  3. ScoreWhite singled to left, Dubón scored, Farmer to second.2nd Inning0–1
  4. ScoreVierling singled to left, Pérez scored on fielding error by left fielder Yastrzemski, Vierling to second.9th Inning4–2
  5. ScoreVierling singled to right, Greene scored, Torkelson to second.6th Inning1–2
  6. ScoreDubón singled to center, Albies scored.3rd Inning0–2

Scoring by Inning

Team123456789RHE
Detroit Tigers0000010225120
Atlanta Braves011000000281

Detroit Tigers

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Kevin McGonigle SS·0-2200003031.328.426.509
Gleyber Torres 2B·3-4403100014.255.387.327
Colt Keith 3B·2-440200008.326.354.402
Jahmai Jones RF0-110000015.194.216.389
Riley Greene LF·0-3310002324.283.391.460
Spencer Torkelson 1B·2-5502000121.228.350.436
Kerry Carpenter RF·1-4411000212.224.313.506
Wenceel Perez RF0-001000109.130.200.283
Matt Vierling CF·3-5523200112.226.286.371
Hao-Yu Lee 3B·0-3300002020.208.296.417
Jake Rogers C·0-3300000110.133.176.200
Dillon Dingler C1-2201100111.247.327.473

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Framber Valdez SP·6.062208099-673.3599
Drew Anderson RP2.010012031-185.8231
Kyle Finnegan RP1.010001017-100.5717

Atlanta Braves

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Ronald Acuna Jr. RF·1-5501000216.240.352.372
Drake Baldwin C·1-3301001212.308.384.500
Ozzie Albies 2B·2-4412000018.323.368.540
Matt Olson 1B·0-4400000121.296.371.616
Austin Riley 3B·0-4400000319.190.274.314
Mauricio Dubon SS·1-3311100014.275.325.422
Kyle Farmer 3B·1-330100009.333.308.417
Michael Harris II CF0-110000007.317.352.535
Jorge Mateo SS·0-220000017.267.313.400
Mike Yastrzemski LF1-2201000010.209.280.275
Eli White CF·1-3301100213.195.209.366
Dominic Smith 1B0-110000001.338.371.554

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Bryce Elder SP·6.061135090-561.8890
Tyler Kinley RP1.020011027-181.2927
Joel Payamps RP0.122211017-98.2217
Aaron Bummer RP0.200011012-64.3512
Jose Suarez RP1.022222031-176.6131

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 9th InningHarris II flied out to left.
  2. 9th InningPérez walked.
  3. 7th InningMcGonigle walked.
  4. 9th InningPitch 7 : Ball In Play
  5. 9th InningPitch 9 : Ball 4
  6. 7th InningPitch 10 : Ball 4

Scoring Plays

  1. 9th InningDingler doubled to left, Vierling scored, Lee thrown out at home.5–2
  2. 8th InningTorres hit sacrifice fly to center, Vierling scored.3–2
  3. 2nd InningWhite singled to left, Dubón scored, Farmer to second.0–1
  4. 9th InningVierling singled to left, Pérez scored on fielding error by left fielder Yastrzemski, Vierling to second.4–2
  5. 6th InningVierling singled to right, Greene scored, Torkelson to second.1–2
  6. 3rd InningDubón singled to center, Albies scored.0–2
  7. 8th InningVierling doubled to left, Carpenter scored.2–2

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