CIN @ PIT
PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Afternoon GameOutdoor4:05 PM ET42°F · 5 mph wind · mostly clear⚾ Rhett Lowder vs Carmen MlodzinskiMLB.TVReds.TV
Result readPittsburgh Pirates
Cincinnati Reds 7 · Pittsburgh Pirates 17
Final
Cincinnati Reds22-19-0.8 net/g (SOS-adj -0.8) · expected win rate 42% · last 10: 20%
Pittsburgh Pirates22-19+0.8 net/g (SOS-adj +0.6) · expected win rate 57% · last 10: 60%
Venue EdgePNC ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Two reasons the projection lands on Pittsburgh Pirates: Pittsburgh Pirates’s scoring margin profile and Pittsburgh Pirates’s recent stretch. Bullpen rest day is the sneakiest input — a long man on the mound erases a 3-run lead in two innings.
Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Pittsburgh Pirates at 77%. Actual: Pittsburgh Pirates by 10.
Pre-game pick: Pittsburgh Pirates at 77%. Actual: Pittsburgh Pirates by 10.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Cincinnati Reds
- Andrew Abbott SP · #41
- Brady Singer SP · #51
- Elly De La Cruz SS · #44
- Matt McLain 2B · #9
Pittsburgh Pirates
- Mitch Keller SP · #23
- Paul Skenes SP · #30
- Mason Montgomery RP · #46
- Bryan Reynolds LF · #10
Injury Report
Pittsburgh Pirates
Dominic FletcherDay-To-DayJake Mangum10-Day-ILChris Devenski15-Day-ILJared Jones60-Day-ILOddanier MosquedaDay-To-Day
Cincinnati Reds
Josh StaumontDay-To-DayCaleb Ferguson15-Day-ILRhett LowderOutEugenio Suarez10-Day-ILConnor BurnsDay-To-Day
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreGriffin walked, Gonzales scored, Horwitz to second, Ozuna to third.3–9
- ScoreOzuna walked, Reynolds scored, Gonzales to second, O'Hearn to third.3–7
- ScoreBleday homered to right (376 feet), Friedl scored.6–15
- ScoreO'Hearn singled to right, Lowe and Reynolds scored.3–14
- 🏃 DoubleReynolds doubled to right, Cruz scored, Lowe to third.3–12
- ScoreGonzales walked, Lowe scored, O'Hearn to second, Reynolds to third.3–6
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 0 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — | 17 | 19 | 0 |
Cincinnati Reds
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl CF· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | .202 | .283 | .298 |
| Rece Hinds RF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | .121 | .167 | .212 |
| JJ Bleday LF· | 2-4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 22 | .308 | .471 | .846 |
| Elly De La Cruz SS· | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 | .277 | .352 | .554 |
| Matt McLain 2B | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | .200 | .314 | .300 |
| Sal Stewart 1B· | 0-5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | .260 | .350 | .528 |
| Nathaniel Lowe 1B· | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | .288 | .364 | .627 |
| Spencer Steer LF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | .243 | .325 | .447 |
| Will Benson RF· | 2-4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 13 | .196 | .315 | .413 |
| Tyler Stephenson C· | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | .188 | .290 | .313 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | .119 | .178 | .190 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhett Lowder SP· | 1.1 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 52-25 | 5.09 | 52 |
| Connor Phillips RP | 0.0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 21-5 | 3.06 | 21 |
| Sam Moll RP | 1.2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 40-23 | 1.84 | 40 |
| Brock Burke RP | 1.0 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 39-24 | 3.52 | 39 |
| Graham Ashcraft RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 14-8 | 1.13 | 14 |
| Jose Franco RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 17-11 | 5.40 | 17 |
| Jose Trevino C | 2.0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28-15 | 15.75 | 28 |
Pittsburgh Pirates
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz CF· | 2-6 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 23 | .257 | .318 | .500 |
| Brandon Lowe 2B· | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 26 | .250 | .359 | .536 |
| Jared Triolo SS | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .208 | .296 | .250 |
| Bryan Reynolds LF· | 2-3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 25 | .264 | .408 | .438 |
| Jake Mangum LF | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .271 | .338 | .300 |
| Ryan O'Hearn RF· | 2-4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 24 | .316 | .401 | .487 |
| Billy Cook RF | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .333 | .333 | .333 |
| Nick Gonzales 3B· | 2-5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | .336 | .390 | .381 |
| Marcell Ozuna DH· | 3-5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 28 | .185 | .254 | .296 |
| Spencer Horwitz 1B· | 2-5 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 27 | .250 | .372 | .380 |
| Konnor Griffin SS· | 4-5 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18 | .260 | .324 | .390 |
| Henry Davis C· | 0-6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | .162 | .253 | .284 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmen Mlodzinski SP· | 5.2 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 101-67 | 4.76 | 101 |
| Chris Devenski RP | 0.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6-3 | 7.71 | 6 |
| Yohan Ramirez RP | 2.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 15-13 | 2.08 | 15 |
| Gregory Soto RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7-6 | 1.72 | 7 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 6th InningO'Hearn struck out looking.
- 6th InningPitch 7 : Strike 3 Looking
- 6th InningPitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul
- 3rd InningHorwitz popped out to third.
- 6th InningPitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul
- 5th InningBleday doubled to right.
Scoring Plays
- 2nd InningGriffin walked, Gonzales scored, Horwitz to second, Ozuna to third.3–9
- 2nd InningOzuna walked, Reynolds scored, Gonzales to second, O'Hearn to third.3–7
- 6th InningBleday homered to right (376 feet), Friedl scored.6–15
- 4th InningO'Hearn singled to right, Lowe and Reynolds scored.3–14
- 4th InningReynolds doubled to right, Cruz scored, Lowe to third.3–12
- 2nd InningGonzales walked, Lowe scored, O'Hearn to second, Reynolds to third.3–6
- 1st InningLowe singled to center, Cruz scored.2–1
- 2nd InningDavis grounded into fielder's choice to third, Ozuna scored, Griffin out at second, Horwitz to third.3–10
- 2nd InningHorwitz walked, O'Hearn scored, Ozuna to second, Gonzales to third.3–8
- 8th InningHorwitz doubled to center, Ozuna scored.7–17
- 8th InningOzuna singled to center, Mangum scored, Ozuna to second.7–16
- 4th InningHorwitz singled to center, O'Hearn scored, Ozuna to second.3–15
- 2nd InningBenson homered to right center (414 feet).3–5
- 1st InningOzuna doubled to left, O'Hearn scored.2–4
- 1st InningGonzales grounded out to second, Reynolds scored, O'Hearn to third.2–3
- 4th InningCruz singled to right, Griffin scored.3–11
- 1st InningGriffin doubled to left, Ozuna scored.2–5
- 1st InningO'Hearn doubled to right, Lowe scored, Reynolds to third.2–2
- 1st InningLowe hit a ground rule double, Bleday and De La Cruz scored.2–0
- 8th InningHayes grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Benson scored, Stephenson out at second.7–15
- 5th InningLowe singled to right, Bleday scored.4–15