KC @ SEA
T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameIndoor6:40 PM PT⚾ Seth Lugo vs Emerson HancockMLB.TVRoyals.TVMariners.TV
Result readKansas City Royals
Kansas City Royals 3 · Seattle Mariners 2
Final
Kansas City Royals19-22-1-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.1) · expected win rate 46% · last 10: 70%
Seattle Mariners19-22+0.0 net/g (SOS-adj +0.1) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 40%
Venue EdgeT-Mobile ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
The model leans Kansas City Royals because Seattle Mariners owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and Kansas City Royals has the recent-form edge. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Seattle Mariners at 60%. Actual: Kansas City Royals by 1.
Pre-game pick: Seattle Mariners at 60%. Actual: Kansas City Royals by 1.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Kansas City Royals
- Cole Ragans SP · #55
- Kris Bubic SP · #50
- Luinder Avila RP · #58
- Bobby Witt Jr. SS · #7
Seattle Mariners
- Bryan Woo SP · #22
- George Kirby SP · #68
- Cal Raleigh C · #29
- Cole Young 2B · #2
Injury Report
Seattle Mariners
Patrick Wisdom10-Day-ILVictor Robles10-Day-ILBryce Miller15-Day-ILTeddy McGrawDay-To-DayJose Ferrerpaternity
Kansas City Royals
Bailey Falter15-Day-ILCole Ragans15-Day-ILJames McArthur60-Day-ILAnthony SimonelliDay-To-DayJavier VazDay-To-Day
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreRivas scored on Lugo wild pitch, Rodríguez to second on wild pitch by Lugo, Crawford to third on wild pitch by Lugo.1–2
- ScoreRivas scored on Lugo wild pitch, Rodríguez to second on wild pitch by Lugo, Crawford to third on wild pitch by Lugo.1–2
- ScoreGarcia hit sacrifice fly to center, Massey scored.3–2
- ScoreNaylor singled to center, Rodríguez scored.0–1
- ScoreCaglianone singled to center, Thomas scored on error, Caglianone safe at third on fielding error by center fielder Rodríguez.2–2
- 🏃 DoubleGarcia doubled to left, Isbel scored.1–1
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Royals | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Seattle Mariners | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
Kansas City Royals
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maikel Garcia 3B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | .273 | .338 | .438 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. SS· | 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | .285 | .362 | .415 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | .179 | .278 | .348 |
| Salvador Perez C· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 16 | .211 | .244 | .367 |
| Lane Thomas CF | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .246 | .387 | .311 |
| Carter Jensen C· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 17 | .235 | .315 | .439 |
| Jac Caglianone RF· | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | .263 | .340 | .432 |
| Isaac Collins LF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | .218 | .327 | .310 |
| Michael Massey 2B· | 0-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14 | .207 | .238 | .345 |
| Kyle Isbel CF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | .275 | .333 | .438 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seth Lugo SP· | 6.0 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 103-66 | 2.68 | 103 |
| Luinder Avila RP | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 23-17 | 7.00 | 23 |
| Matt Strahm RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8-8 | 3.55 | 8 |
| Lucas Erceg RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 17-10 | 3.77 | 17 |
Seattle Mariners
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Crawford SS· | 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | .202 | .360 | .303 |
| Julio Rodriguez CF· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | .269 | .338 | .410 |
| Josh Naylor 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | .215 | .284 | .331 |
| Randy Arozarena LF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 19 | .281 | .373 | .446 |
| Cole Young 2B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 23 | .275 | .343 | .400 |
| Dominic Canzone RF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | .264 | .316 | .486 |
| Rob Refsnyder RF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .132 | .209 | .289 |
| Luke Raley RF· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | .247 | .302 | .483 |
| Connor Joe 1B | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .235 | .278 | .471 |
| Mitch Garver C· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 19 | .200 | .347 | .225 |
| Leo Rivas 3B· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 18 | .150 | .274 | .188 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson Hancock SP· | 7.0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 103-74 | 2.59 | 103 |
| Eduard Bazardo RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12-9 | 1.20 | 12 |
| Andres Munoz RP | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10-8 | 6.23 | 10 |
| Cooper Criswell RP | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14-9 | 2.35 | 14 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 10th InningIsbel struck out swinging.
- 10th InningPitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging
- 10th InningMassey stole third.
- 5th InningNaylor struck out swinging.
- 10th InningMassey stole third.
Scoring Plays
- 5th InningRivas scored on Lugo wild pitch, Rodríguez to second on wild pitch by Lugo, Crawford to third on wild pitch by Lugo.1–2
- 5th InningRivas scored on Lugo wild pitch, Rodríguez to second on wild pitch by Lugo, Crawford to third on wild pitch by Lugo.1–2
- 10th InningGarcia hit sacrifice fly to center, Massey scored.3–2
- 1st InningNaylor singled to center, Rodríguez scored.0–1
- 9th InningCaglianone singled to center, Thomas scored on error, Caglianone safe at third on fielding error by center fielder Rodríguez.2–2
- 3rd InningGarcia doubled to left, Isbel scored.1–1