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In The Rafters

CLE @ ATH

Joshua Silvia
11–17 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Day GameOutdoor1:05 PM PT63°F · 8 mph wind · mostly clear⚾ Parker Messick vs Aaron CivaleESPN UnlmtdMLB.TVCLEGuardians.TV
Result readAthletics

Cleveland Guardians 1 · Athletics 7

Final
Cleveland Guardians21-21-1-0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.1) · expected win rate 49% · last 10: 50%
Athletics21-19-0.1 net/g (SOS-adj -0.2) · expected win rate 48% · last 10: 50%
Venue EdgeSutter Health ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

The model leans Athletics because Cleveland Guardians owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and Athletics has the recent-form edge. Bullpen rest day is the sneakiest input — a long man on the mound erases a 3-run lead in two innings.

Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Cleveland Guardians at 68%. Actual: Athletics by 6.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Cleveland Guardians

Athletics

Roster watch list pending.

Injury Report

Athletics

Jacob WilsonDay-To-DayMax Muncy10-Day-ILDenzel Clarke10-Day-ILGunnar Hoglund60-Day-IL

Cleveland Guardians

Gabriel Arias10-Day-ILShawn Armstrong15-Day-ILAndrew Walters15-Day-ILCarlos HernandezDay-To-Day
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Cleveland Guardians
AM Angel Martinez LF · #1 SK Steven Kwan CF · #38 CD Chase DeLauter RF · #24 JR Jose Ramirez 3B · #11 BR Brayan Rocchio SS · #4 TB Travis Bazzana 2B · #37 KM Kyle Manzardo 1B · #9 GW Gavin Williams P · #32 BN Bo Naylor C · #23
Athletics

Box Score

Highlights

  1. 🏃 DoubleMcNeil doubled to right, Gelof scored, Wynns scored and Soderstrom scored.6th Inning1–7
  2. ScoreGelof homered to left (429 feet).5th Inning1–2
  3. ScoreRooker reached on infield single to shortstop, Hernaiz scored, Wilson to second.5th Inning1–4
  4. ScoreDeLauter homered to left (356 feet).5th Inning1–1
  5. ScoreSoderstrom homered to right center (379 feet).5th Inning1–3
  6. ScoreThomas homered to left center (400 feet).2nd Inning0–1

Scoring by Inning

Team123456789RHE
Cleveland Guardians000010000170
Athletics01003300—7110

Cleveland Guardians

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Steven Kwan CF·0-4400000010.224.319.288
Chase DeLauter RF·2-4412110114.304.392.554
Jose Ramirez 3B·1-3301001012.217.340.419
Kyle Manzardo 1B·2-4402000014.200.280.284
Daniel Schneemann CF·0-4400000219.298.366.524
Travis Bazzana 2B·2-3302001017.188.409.188
Petey Halpin CF·0-4400000112.000.000.000
Austin Hedges C·0-220000014.310.348.476
Bo Naylor C0-1100001013.135.200.203
David Fry RF0-000000000.231.375.410
Brayan Rocchio SS·0-4400000012.268.344.384

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Parker Messick SP·5.064406378-552.4078
Peyton Pallette RP1.023331036-165.2736
Colin Holderman RP2.030002027-181.8027

Athletics

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Jacob Wilson SS·1-4401001016.295.313.396
Brent Rooker RF·1-5501100221.162.234.294
Nick Kurtz 1B·1-4401000214.244.412.412
Colby Thomas RF·1-221111003.267.353.467
Lawrence Butler RF0-2200000211.180.268.290
Zack Gelof CF·1-3321111015.250.286.425
Tyler Soderstrom LF·3-4423110113.221.304.426
Austin Wynns C·0-3310001114.086.158.086
Darell Hernaiz 3B·1-4411000115.224.321.286
Jeff McNeil 2B·2-4402300019.314.379.422

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Aaron Civale SP·6.071123193-612.9593
Justin Sterner RP1.000001012-74.5812
Mark Leiter Jr. RP1.000001010-75.7910
Joel Kuhnel RP1.000010012-72.1312

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 6th InningButler struck out looking.
  2. 6th InningPitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

Scoring Plays

  1. 6th InningMcNeil doubled to right, Gelof scored, Wynns scored and Soderstrom scored.1–7
  2. 5th InningGelof homered to left (429 feet).1–2
  3. 5th InningRooker reached on infield single to shortstop, Hernaiz scored, Wilson to second.1–4
  4. 5th InningDeLauter homered to left (356 feet).1–1
  5. 5th InningSoderstrom homered to right center (379 feet).1–3
  6. 2nd InningThomas homered to left center (400 feet).0–1

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