KC @ SEA
T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Day GameIndoor1:10 PM PT⚾ Kris Bubic vs Luis CastilloMLB.TVRoyals.TVMariners.TV
Result readKansas City Royals
Kansas City Royals 4 · Seattle Mariners 1
Final
Kansas City Royals19-22-1-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.1) · expected win rate 46% · last 10: 70%
Seattle Mariners19-22+0.0 net/g (SOS-adj +0.1) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 40%
Venue EdgeT-Mobile ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Pick goes to Kansas City Royals on the back of Seattle Mariners’s margin work and Kansas City Royals’s last-ten momentum. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Seattle Mariners at 61%. Actual: Kansas City Royals by 3.
Pre-game pick: Seattle Mariners at 61%. Actual: Kansas City Royals by 3.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Kansas City Royals
- Cole Ragans SP · #55
- Kris Bubic SP · #50
- Luinder Avila RP · #58
- Bobby Witt Jr. SS · #7
Seattle Mariners
- Bryan Woo SP · #22
- George Kirby SP · #68
- Cal Raleigh C · #29
- Cole Young 2B · #2
Injury Report
Seattle Mariners
Patrick Wisdom10-Day-ILVictor Robles10-Day-ILBryce Miller15-Day-ILTeddy McGrawDay-To-DayJose Ferrerpaternity
Kansas City Royals
Bailey Falter15-Day-ILCole Ragans15-Day-ILJames McArthur60-Day-ILAnthony SimonelliDay-To-DayJavier VazDay-To-Day
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreJensen walked, Witt Jr. scored, Perez to second, Pasquantino to third.1–1
- ScoreCaglianone grounded into fielder's choice to first, Pasquantino scored, Jensen out at second, Perez to third.2–1
- 🏃 DoubleCollins doubled to center, Caglianone scored.4–1
- ScoreNaylor grounded into fielder's choice to first, Rivas scored, Rodríguez out at second.0–1
- ScoreCollins hit sacrifice fly to center, Perez scored.3–1
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Royals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Seattle Mariners | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
Kansas City Royals
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maikel Garcia 3B· | 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | .270 | .333 | .429 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. SS· | 1-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 23 | .281 | .357 | .407 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino 1B· | 2-5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | .188 | .283 | .350 |
| Salvador Perez C· | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | .206 | .245 | .359 |
| Starling Marte RF | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .303 | .314 | .394 |
| Carter Jensen C· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 23 | .230 | .322 | .430 |
| Jac Caglianone RF· | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13 | .255 | .336 | .418 |
| Isaac Collins LF· | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11 | .236 | .343 | .337 |
| Michael Massey 2B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | .194 | .224 | .323 |
| Kyle Isbel CF· | 2-3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14 | .289 | .352 | .446 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kris Bubic SP· | 7.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 94-63 | 3.32 | 94 |
| John Schreiber RP | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12-6 | 4.38 | 12 |
| Daniel Lynch IV RP | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 17-13 | 1.98 | 17 |
Seattle Mariners
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Refsnyder RF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | .122 | .196 | .268 |
| Dominic Canzone RF | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | .264 | .325 | .486 |
| Julio Rodriguez CF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | .268 | .336 | .406 |
| Josh Naylor 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | .216 | .283 | .328 |
| Randy Arozarena LF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | .272 | .363 | .432 |
| J.P. Crawford SS· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | .204 | .357 | .301 |
| Cole Young 2B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | .274 | .341 | .395 |
| Connor Joe 1B· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 | .211 | .286 | .421 |
| Jhonny Pereda C· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Leo Rivas 3B· | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20 | .146 | .276 | .183 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Castillo SP· | 6.0 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 101-62 | 6.29 | 101 |
| Alex Hoppe RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18-12 | 7.36 | 18 |
| Cole Wilcox RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20-11 | 5.40 | 20 |
| Nick Davila RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 16-9 | 0.00 | 16 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 3rd InningRivas walked.
- 2nd InningJoe walked, Crawford to second.
Scoring Plays
- 4th InningJensen walked, Witt Jr. scored, Perez to second, Pasquantino to third.1–1
- 4th InningCaglianone grounded into fielder's choice to first, Pasquantino scored, Jensen out at second, Perez to third.2–1
- 6th InningCollins doubled to center, Caglianone scored.4–1
- 3rd InningNaylor grounded into fielder's choice to first, Rivas scored, Rodríguez out at second.0–1
- 4th InningCollins hit sacrifice fly to center, Perez scored.3–1