MIL @ WSH
Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Day GameOutdoor1:35 PM ET62°F · 9 mph wind · mostly clear⚾ Logan Henderson vs PJ PoulinMLB.TVBrewers.TVNationals.TV
Result readWashington Nationals
Milwaukee Brewers 2 · Washington Nationals 3
Final
Milwaukee Brewers22-16-2+1.4 net/g (SOS-adj +1.4) · expected win rate 64% · last 10: 75%
Washington Nationals19-22-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj +0.1) · expected win rate 47% · last 10: 50%
Venue EdgeNationals ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Washington Nationals gets the model’s nod thanks to Milwaukee Brewers’s margin advantage, with Milwaukee Brewers’s recent run providing the second tip. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Milwaukee Brewers at 90%. Actual: Washington Nationals by 1.
Pre-game pick: Milwaukee Brewers at 90%. Actual: Washington Nationals by 1.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Milwaukee Brewers
- Jacob Misiorowski SP · #32
- Kyle Harrison SP · #52
- Aaron Ashby RP · #26
- DL Hall RP · #37
Washington Nationals
- Cade Cavalli SP · #24
- Jake Irvin SP · #27
- PJ Poulin RP · #50
- James Wood RF · #29
Injury Report
Washington Nationals
Cole Henry15-Day-ILClayton Beeter15-Day-ILJosiah Gray60-Day-ILTrevor Williams60-Day-ILTyler BaumDay-To-Day
Milwaukee Brewers
J.B. BukauskasDay-To-DayBrandon Woodruff15-Day-ILChristian Yelich10-Day-ILBrandon Lockridge10-Day-ILRob Zastryzny60-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreNuñez singled to center, Abrams scored.1–1
- 🏃 TripleTena tripled to center, Nuñez scored.1–2
- ScoreMitchell grounded out to second, Perkins scored, Jones to second.2–3
- ScoreNuñez singled to left, Abrams scored.1–3
- ScoreOrtiz hit sacrifice fly to center, Lockridge scored.1–0
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Washington Nationals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | — | 3 | 7 | 0 |
Milwaukee Brewers
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Rengifo 3B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | .186 | .252 | .268 |
| William Contreras C· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | .298 | .370 | .427 |
| Gary Sanchez C· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | .211 | .364 | .479 |
| Blake Perkins LF | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .109 | .212 | .174 |
| Jake Bauers 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | .243 | .317 | .423 |
| Greg Jones LF | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .095 | .095 | .095 |
| Garrett Mitchell CF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20 | .231 | .381 | .352 |
| Brandon Lockridge LF· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | .280 | .359 | .329 |
| Sal Frelick RF· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11 | .208 | .305 | .317 |
| David Hamilton 3B· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | .247 | .351 | .272 |
| Joey Ortiz SS· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | .181 | .259 | .181 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Henderson SP· | 6.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 76-56 | 4.50 | 76 |
| Brian Fitzpatrick RP | 1.1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16-12 | 2.45 | 16 |
| Jake Woodford RP | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12-6 | 4.11 | 12 |
Washington Nationals
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Wood RF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | .231 | .383 | .507 |
| Luis Garcia Jr. 1B· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | .234 | .259 | .336 |
| Curtis Mead 1B | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | .211 | .309 | .451 |
| Jacob Young CF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15 | .232 | .271 | .330 |
| CJ Abrams SS· | 2-4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | .297 | .406 | .534 |
| Daylen Lile LF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | .246 | .311 | .370 |
| Nasim Nunez 2B· | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | .222 | .325 | .232 |
| Jose Tena 2B· | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | .268 | .317 | .393 |
| Brady House 3B | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .229 | .289 | .364 |
| Jorbit Vivas 3B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | .261 | .350 | .304 |
| Keibert Ruiz C· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | .194 | .215 | .323 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PJ Poulin RP· | 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 36-23 | 3.63 | 36 |
| Zack Littell SP | 3.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 41-23 | 7.24 | 41 |
| Mitchell Parker RP | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 23-14 | 4.05 | 23 |
| Gus Varland RP | 0.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9-5 | 3.38 | 9 |
| Richard Lovelady RP | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12-9 | 2.51 | 12 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 7th InningLile grounded out to second, Abrams to third.
- 7th InningPitch 7 : Ball In Play
- 2nd InningMitchell walked.
- 1st InningContreras grounded out to second.
- 8th InningMead walked.
Scoring Plays
- 5th InningNuñez singled to center, Abrams scored.1–1
- 5th InningTena tripled to center, Nuñez scored.1–2
- 9th InningMitchell grounded out to second, Perkins scored, Jones to second.2–3
- 7th InningNuñez singled to left, Abrams scored.1–3
- 5th InningOrtiz hit sacrifice fly to center, Lockridge scored.1–0