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In The Rafters

BOS @ DET

Joshua Silvia
12–18 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Night GameOutdoor6:40 PM ET52°F · 6 mph wind · drizzle⚾ Jovani Moran vs Framber ValdezMLB.TVTigers.TV
Result readBoston Red Sox

Boston Red Sox 10 · Detroit Tigers 3

Final
Boston Red Sox17-23-1-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.3) · expected win rate 47% · last 10: 55%
Detroit Tigers19-22+0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.1) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 40%
Venue EdgeComerica ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

The model leans Boston Red Sox because Detroit Tigers owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and Boston Red Sox has the recent-form edge. Pitcher confirmation and bullpen availability can move this fastest.

Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Detroit Tigers at 69%. Actual: Boston Red Sox by 7.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Boston Red Sox

Detroit Tigers

Injury Report

Detroit Tigers

Connor Seabold15-Day-ILFramber ValdezsuspensionWill Vest15-Day-ILGleyber Torres10-Day-ILCasey Mize15-Day-IL

Boston Red Sox

Willson ContrerasDay-To-DayKutter Crawford15-Day-ILRoman Anthony10-Day-ILDanny Coulombe15-Day-ILGarrett Crochet15-Day-IL
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Boston Red Sox
JD Jarren Duran LF · #16 CR C. Rafaela CF · #3 WA Wilyer Abreu RF · #52 CD Caleb Durbin 3B · #5 TS Trevor Story SS · #10 MM Marcelo Mayer 2B · #11 WC W. Contreras 1B · #40 BB Brayan Bello P · #66 CN Carlos Narvaez C · #75
Detroit Tigers
RG Riley Greene LF · #31 MV Matt Vierling CF · #8 KC K. Carpenter RF · #30 CK Colt Keith 3B · #33 KM K. McGonigle SS · #7 GT Gleyber Torres 2B · #25 ST S. Torkelson 1B · #20 FV Framber Valdez P · #59 DD Dillon Dingler C · #13

Box Score

Highlights

  1. ScorePérez singled to center, Jones scored, Greene to third.1st Inning3–2
  2. ScoreRafaela homered to right center (362 feet), Abreu scored and Story scored.1st Inning3–0
  3. ScoreKiner-Falefa grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Durbin scored, Wong out at second.3rd Inning8–2
  4. ScoreVierling homered to left (365 feet).1st Inning3–1
  5. ScoreWong singled to center, Monasterio scored, Durbin to third.3rd Inning7–2
  6. ScoreDurbin singled to left, Rafaela scored, Monasterio to second.3rd Inning6–2

Scoring by Inning

Team123456789RHE
Boston Red Sox30520000010120
Detroit Tigers200010000371

Boston Red Sox

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Jarren Duran LF·0-5500000316.195.250.333
Willson Contreras 1B·1-4421111111.270.382.492
Wilyer Abreu RF·3-4423111114.311.393.485
Trevor Story SS·1-4421000116.209.248.295
Ceddanne Rafaela CF·3-5523410115.276.339.397
Andruw Monasterio SS·1-5511100220.218.283.345
Caleb Durbin 3B·2-5512100112.175.260.254
Connor Wong C·1-3301100113.250.340.364
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2B·0-4400100010.205.244.205

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Jovani Moran RP·1.032223138-213.1038
Brayan Bello SP7.041117094-667.4494
Alec Gamboa RP1.000002014-90.0014

Detroit Tigers

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Matt Vierling CF·2-4412110012.221.279.390
Kevin McGonigle SS·0-3310001114.308.403.466
Jahmai Jones RF·1-111100001.220.256.415
Kerry Carpenter RF1-3301000114.214.301.459
Dillon Dingler C·1-4401100215.257.325.486
Riley Greene LF·1-3301001114.290.392.450
Wenceel Perez RF·1-4401100116.156.217.266
Spencer Torkelson 1B·0-3300001221.212.336.415
Zach McKinstry 2B·0-4400000220.191.240.298
Hao-Yu Lee 3B·0-4400000219.171.227.293

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Framber Valdez SP·3.0910713360-454.5760
Brenan Hanifee RP3.020012033-200.0033
Burch Smith RP2.010004020-181.7420
Enmanuel De Jesus RP1.000002014-97.7114

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 7th InningCarpenter lined into double play, second to shortstop, McGonigle doubled off second.
  2. 9th InningMonasterio struck out swinging.
  3. 7th InningPitch 7 : Ball In Play
  4. 6th InningTorkelson struck out swinging.
  5. 4th InningMcKinstry flied out to left.
  6. 1st InningStory safe at first on fielding error by third baseman McKinstry, Abreu safe at third on error.

Scoring Plays

  1. 1st InningPérez singled to center, Jones scored, Greene to third.3–2
  2. 1st InningRafaela homered to right center (362 feet), Abreu scored and Story scored.3–0
  3. 3rd InningKiner-Falefa grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Durbin scored, Wong out at second.8–2
  4. 1st InningVierling homered to left (365 feet).3–1
  5. 3rd InningWong singled to center, Monasterio scored, Durbin to third.7–2
  6. 3rd InningDurbin singled to left, Rafaela scored, Monasterio to second.6–2
  7. 3rd InningRafaela singled to center, Contreras scored, Story to second.4–2
  8. 4th InningAbreu homered to right (396 feet).10–2
  9. 4th InningContreras homered to left center (449 feet).9–2
  10. 5th InningDingler singled to left, McGonigle scored, Carpenter to second.10–3
  11. 3rd InningMonasterio singled to center, Story scored, Rafaela to second.5–2

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