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Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Night GameOutdoor6:40 PM CT⚾ Gavin Williams vs Stephen KolekMLB.TVCLEGuardians.TVRoyals.TV
Result readKansas City Royals

Cleveland Guardians 3 · Kansas City Royals 5

Final
Cleveland Guardians21-21-1-0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.1) · expected win rate 49% · last 10: 50%
Kansas City Royals19-22-1-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.1) · expected win rate 46% · last 10: 70%
Venue EdgeKauffman StadiumHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Kansas City Royals gets the model’s nod thanks to Cleveland Guardians’s margin advantage, with Kansas City Royals’s recent run providing the second tip. Pitcher confirmation and bullpen availability can move this fastest.

Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Cleveland Guardians at 60%. Actual: Kansas City Royals by 2.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Injury Report

Kansas City Royals

Bailey Falter15-Day-ILCole Ragans15-Day-ILJames McArthur60-Day-ILAnthony SimonelliDay-To-DayJavier VazDay-To-Day

Cleveland Guardians

Gabriel Arias10-Day-ILShawn Armstrong15-Day-ILAndrew Walters15-Day-ILCarlos HernandezDay-To-Day
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Box Score

Highlights

  1. ScoreMassey homered to right (392 feet), Collins scored.4th Inning3–4
  2. ScoreHoskins homered to left (343 feet), Ramírez scored and Manzardo scored.4th Inning3–2
  3. ScorePerez singled to center, Garcia scored and Witt Jr. scored.1st Inning0–2
  4. ScoreCollins homered to right center (382 feet).6th Inning3–5

Scoring by Inning

Team123456789RHE
Cleveland Guardians000300000340
Kansas City Royals20020100580

Cleveland Guardians

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Steven Kwan CF·0-4400000014.211.303.271
Chase DeLauter RF·1-4401000011.302.388.543
Jose Ramirez 3B·0-4410000115.212.329.401
Kyle Manzardo 1B·1-4411000117.202.279.283
Rhys Hoskins 1B·1-3311311016.207.353.390
Daniel Schneemann CF·1-4401000111.283.347.489
Travis Bazzana 2B·0-3300000011.174.345.174
Angel Martinez LF·0-330000019.271.307.477
Bo Naylor C·0-2200000112.127.188.190
David Fry RF0-000000104.262.404.500

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Gavin Williams SP·6.085527297-683.2897
Colin Holderman RP2.000003026-171.5026

Kansas City Royals

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Maikel Garcia 3B·0-3310001113.256.322.406
Bobby Witt Jr. SS·2-4412000110.287.358.434
Vinnie Pasquantino 1B·0-4400000010.192.281.352
Salvador Perez C·1-4401200214.209.245.353
Carter Jensen C·0-4400000419.222.309.407
Jac Caglianone RF·0-4400000220.248.331.429
Isaac Collins LF·3-332311008.255.366.394
Michael Massey 2B·2-3312210014.215.243.385
Kyle Isbel CF·0-2200001015.282.351.435

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Stephen Kolek SP·6.043303183-564.5083
Nick Mears RP1.00000108-52.138
Daniel Lynch IV RP1.000010014-71.8414
Lucas Erceg RP1.000011015-83.5215

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 2nd InningIsbel walked.
  2. 2nd InningBazzana grounded out to second.
  3. 2nd InningPitch 8 : Ball 4
  4. 2nd InningPitch 8 : Ball In Play
  5. 9th InningRamírez struck out swinging.

Scoring Plays

  1. 4th InningMassey homered to right (392 feet), Collins scored.3–4
  2. 4th InningHoskins homered to left (343 feet), Ramírez scored and Manzardo scored.3–2
  3. 1st InningPerez singled to center, Garcia scored and Witt Jr. scored.0–2
  4. 6th InningCollins homered to right center (382 feet).3–5

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