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In The Rafters

SD @ SF

Joshua Silvia
12–19 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Night GameOutdoor6:45 PM PT49°F · 4 mph wind · clear⚾ Walker Buehler vs Logan WebbMLB.TVPadres.TV
Result readSan Diego Padres

San Diego Padres 10 · San Francisco Giants 5

Final
San Diego Padres24-16+0.1 net/g (SOS-adj -0.2) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 50%
San Francisco Giants16-24-1-1.2 net/g (SOS-adj -1.2) · expected win rate 36% · last 10: 30%
Venue EdgeOracle ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Pick goes to San Diego Padres on the back of San Diego Padres’s margin work and San Diego Padres’s last-ten momentum. Lineup vs. starter L/R splits matter more than season ERAs in a one-game sample.

Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: San Diego Padres at 77%. Actual: San Diego Padres by 5.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

San Diego Padres

San Francisco Giants

Injury Report

San Francisco Giants

Daniel Susac10-Day-ILHarrison Bader10-Day-ILErik Miller15-Day-ILJason Foley60-Day-ILLogan Webb15-Day-IL

San Diego Padres

Jake Cronenworth7-day ilGerman Marquez15-Day-ILBlake HuntDay-To-DayJhony Brito60-Day-ILLuis Campusano10-Day-IL
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

San Diego Padres
RL Ramon Laureano LF · #5 JM J. Merrill CF · #3 FT F. Tatis Jr. RF · #23 MM Manny Machado 3B · #13 XB X. Bogaerts SS · #2 JC J. Cronenworth 2B · #9 GS Gavin Sheets 1B · #30 YD Yu Darvish P · #11 FF Freddy Fermin C · #54
San Francisco Giants
HR Heliot Ramos LF · #17 DG Drew Gilbert CF · #0 JL Jung Hoo Lee RF · #51 MC Matt Chapman 3B · #26 WA Willy Adames SS · #2 LA Luis Arraez 2B · #1 RD Rafael Devers 1B · #16 LW Logan Webb P · #62 PB Patrick Bailey C · #14

Box Score

Highlights

  1. 🏃 DoubleMerrill doubled to left, Song scored.8th Inning9–5
  2. ScoreAndujar singled to right, Merrill scored.6th Inning8–4
  3. ScoreCastellanos hit sacrifice fly to left, Andujar scored.5th Inning7–4
  4. ScoreMerrill singled to center, Song scored.4th Inning6–4
  5. ScoreLee grounded into fielder's choice to second, Gilbert scored, J. Rodríguez out at second.2nd Inning1–4
  6. ScoreSchmitt homered to left (386 feet), Lee scored.1st Inning0–2

Scoring by Inning

Team123456789RHE
San Diego Padres01051102010140
San Francisco Giants220000100582

San Diego Padres

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Jackson Merrill CF·3-5523200226.235.294.379
Manny Machado 3B·0-5500000222.212.317.373
Miguel Andujar 3B·3-5513100014.322.352.517
Gavin Sheets 1B·2-5512000019.224.269.439
Fernando Tatis Jr. RF·1-5511000116.250.320.305
Xander Bogaerts SS·2-4412211015.270.352.429
Nick Castellanos RF·1-3311200014.172.217.281
Bryce Johnson RF0-110000001.208.269.292
Luis Campusano C·0-2210001016.288.362.596
Sung-Mun Song 3B·2-4422200013.500.500.750

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Walker Buehler SP·5.174405182-565.6482
Jeremiah Estrada RP1.211102121-164.6621
Jason Adam RP1.00000009-81.809
Ron Marinaccio RP1.00000109-75.039

San Francisco Giants

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Jung Hoo Lee RF·1-4411100017.271.319.395
Casey Schmitt 1B·1-4411210115.306.355.559
Rafael Devers 1B·1-4401000114.219.264.307
Heliot Ramos LF·0-4400000216.262.297.408
Bryce Eldridge 1B·1-440100009.167.286.167
Matt Chapman 3B·0-4400000118.239.315.321
Willy Adames SS·1-4411000113.199.236.340
Drew Gilbert CF·1-331100016.259.298.389
Christian Koss 2B0-110000013.077.077.154
Jesus Rodriguez C·2-3312210010.333.333.833

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Logan Webb SP·4.076604162-405.0662
JT Brubaker RP1.021121038-202.6538
Ryan Borucki RP1.021100020-125.5620
Gregory Santos RP2.022200028-204.9128
Joel Peguero RP1.01000008-60.008

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 6th InningMachado grounded out to second, Merrill to third.
  2. 6th InningPitch 9 : Ball In Play
  3. 6th InningPitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul
  4. 5th InningTatis Jr. struck out swinging.
  5. 7th InningLee fouled out to catcher.
  6. 6th InningPitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

Scoring Plays

  1. 8th InningMerrill doubled to left, Song scored.9–5
  2. 6th InningAndujar singled to right, Merrill scored.8–4
  3. 5th InningCastellanos hit sacrifice fly to left, Andujar scored.7–4
  4. 4th InningMerrill singled to center, Song scored.6–4
  5. 2nd InningLee grounded into fielder's choice to second, Gilbert scored, J. Rodríguez out at second.1–4
  6. 1st InningSchmitt homered to left (386 feet), Lee scored.0–2
  7. 7th InningJ. Rodríguez homered to right (339 feet).8–5
  8. 4th InningSong doubled to center, Campusano scored on error and Castellanos scored, Song safe at third on throwing error by shortstop Adames.5–4
  9. 4th InningCastellanos singled to center, Tatis Jr. scored.3–4
  10. 4th InningBogaerts grounded out to third, Sheets scored, Tatis Jr. to third.2–4
  11. 2nd InningJ. Rodríguez singled to right, Adames scored, Gilbert to third.1–3
  12. 2nd InningBogaerts homered to left center (391 feet).1–2
  13. 8th InningMerrill scored on a balk.10–5
  14. 8th InningMerrill scored on a balk.10–5

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