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In The Rafters

STL @ SD

Joshua Silvia
14–21 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Night GameOutdoor7:00 PM PT60°F · 2 mph wind · overcast⚾ Matthew Liberatore vs Michael King
Result readSt. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis Cardinals 2 · San Diego Padres 1

Final
St. Louis Cardinals23-17-1+0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.3) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 55%
San Diego Padres24-17+0.0 net/g (SOS-adj -0.2) · expected win rate 50% · last 10: 50%
Venue EdgePetco ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

The model leans St. Louis Cardinals because St. Louis Cardinals owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and St. Louis Cardinals has the recent-form edge. Pitcher confirmation and bullpen availability can move this fastest.

Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: St. Louis Cardinals at 63%. Actual: St. Louis Cardinals by 1.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

St. Louis Cardinals

San Diego Padres

Injury Report

San Diego Padres

Jake Cronenworth7-day ilGerman Marquez15-Day-ILBlake HuntDay-To-DayJhony Brito60-Day-ILLuis Campusano10-Day-IL

St. Louis Cardinals

Matt Pushard15-Day-ILRamon Urias10-Day-ILLars Nootbaar60-Day-ILIxan HendersonDay-To-DayVictor SantosDay-To-Day
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

St. Louis Cardinals
NC Nathan Church LF · #27 VI V. Scott II CF · #11 JW Jordan Walker RF · #18 NG Nolan Gorman 3B · #16 MW Masyn Winn SS · #0 JW JJ Wetherholt 2B · #26 AB Alec Burleson 1B · #41 ML M. Liberatore P · #32 IH Ivan Herrera C · #48
San Diego Padres
RL Ramon Laureano LF · #5 JM J. Merrill CF · #3 FT F. Tatis Jr. RF · #23 MM Manny Machado 3B · #13 XB X. Bogaerts SS · #2 JC J. Cronenworth 2B · #9 GS Gavin Sheets 1B · #30 YD Yu Darvish P · #11 FF Freddy Fermin C · #54

Box Score

Top Performers

Final Notes

  • Final frame: St. Louis Cardinals beat San Diego Padres 2-1.
  • Top line: Michael King (San Diego Padres) — 6.0 IP, 6 K, 1 ER.
  • Support line: Matthew Liberatore (St. Louis Cardinals) — 6.0 IP, 6 K, 1 ER.
  • Support line: Alec Burleson (St. Louis Cardinals) — 1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 R.

Highlights

  1. ScoreBogaerts singled to right, Machado scored, Tatis Jr. to third.1st Inning0–1
  2. 🏃 TripleWinn tripled to right, Walker scored.7th Inning2–1
  3. ScoreBurleson homered to right (378 feet).4th Inning1–1

Scoring by Inning

Team123456789RHE
St. Louis Cardinals000100100250
San Diego Padres100000000140

St. Louis Cardinals

· Starter

Batting#

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
JJ Wetherholt 2B·0-2200002014.236.355.421
Ivan Herrera DH·0-3300001217.242.402.409
Alec Burleson 1B·1-3311111013.270.350.461
Jordan Walker RF·2-4412000019.309.383.588
Nolan Gorman 3B·0-3300001319.221.290.377
Masyn Winn SS·1-4401100014.264.343.372
Nathan Church LF·0-4400000117.238.274.419
Pedro Pages C·0-4400000114.217.267.361
Victor Scott II CF·1-3301000113.194.255.247

Pitching#

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Matthew Liberatore SP·6.031136081-524.0781
George Soriano RP1.010001012-73.3112
JoJo Romero RP1.00000107-73.507
Riley O'Brien RP1.000001010-82.0010

San Diego Padres

· Starter

Batting#

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Jackson Merrill CF·0-3300001115.230.296.374
Miguel Andujar DH·1-4401000214.305.333.484
Manny Machado 3B·0-3310001018.202.313.355
Fernando Tatis Jr. RF·2-3302000114.252.318.304
Xander Bogaerts SS·1-3301100115.277.356.454
Ramon Laureano LF·0-2200001110.230.308.413
Ty France 1B·0-330000016.276.311.534
Nick Castellanos RF·0-3300000211.183.224.282
Rodolfo Duran C·0-330000007.000.000.000

Pitching#

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Michael King SP·6.011126186-542.7686
Bradgley Rodriguez RP1.021102017-141.9317
Wandy Peralta RP1.010020014-43.1814
Jason Adam RP1.010010023-171.6423

Keep following: Today’s scores·Player values·Morning Line

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 9th InningGorman walked.
  2. 9th InningPitch 9 : Ball 4
  3. 7th InningBogaerts struck out swinging.
  4. 1st InningMachado walked.
  5. 9th InningPitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul

Scoring Plays

  1. 1st InningBogaerts singled to right, Machado scored, Tatis Jr. to third.0–1
  2. 7th InningWinn tripled to right, Walker scored.2–1
  3. 4th InningBurleson homered to right (378 feet).1–1

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