Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Night GameOutdoor6:05 PM ET58°F · 4 mph wind · clear⚾ Kyle Freeland vs Aaron NolaMLB.TVRockies.TV
Model pickPhiladelphia Phillies

Colorado Rockies 3.9 · Philadelphia Phillies 4.7

68%confidence
Colorado Rockies14-22-2-0.6 net/g (SOS-adj -0.7) · expected win rate 43% · last 10: 35%
Philadelphia Phillies16-20-1-0.9 net/g (SOS-adj -0.8) · expected win rate 40% · last 10: 75%
Venue EdgeCitizens Bank ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

The model leans Philadelphia Phillies because Colorado Rockies owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and Philadelphia Phillies has the recent-form edge. Pitcher confirmation and bullpen availability can move this fastest.

Three things to watch

  • Form gap. Philadelphia Phillies is 75% over their recent sample; Colorado Rockies is 35%. Streaky teams tend to carry one more game than the math allows for.
  • Pitching matchup. Kyle Freeland (Colorado Rockies) vs. Aaron Nola (Philadelphia Phillies).

Players to Watch

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Injury Report

Philadelphia Phillies

Christian McGowanDay-To-DayRene PintoDay-To-DayKeaton AnthonyDay-To-DayZach Pop15-Day-ILKyle Backhus15-Day-IL

Colorado Rockies

Jared ThomasDay-To-DayRyan Feltner15-Day-ILMcCade Brown60-Day-ILJeff Criswell60-Day-ILCase WilliamsDay-To-Day

On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Box Score

Live and final box-score stats appear here once the game tips.

Recent Form

Philadelphia Phillies

  • W@ MIA6-5
  • L@ MIA4-0
  • W@ MIA7-2
  • W@ MIA1-0
  • Wvs ATH9-1

Colorado Rockies

  • L@ CIN6-4
  • Lvs ATL8-6
  • Lvs ATL9-1
  • Lvs ATL11-6
  • Lvs NYM4-2

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