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In The Rafters

STL @ SD

Joshua Silvia
17–26 minutes

Keep followingToday’s scores·MLB player values·Morning Line

Game Read

A transparent matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. It is analysis, not betting advice.

Afternoon GameOutdoor4:15 PM PT61°F · 2 mph wind · mostly clearProbables: Dustin May vs Randy VasquezMLB.TV
Result readSan Diego Padres

St. Louis Cardinals 2 · San Diego Padres 4

Final
St. Louis Cardinals24-17-1+0.1 net/g (schedule-adjusted +0.3) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 55%
San Diego Padres24-17+0.0 net/g (schedule-adjusted -0.2) · expected win rate 50% · last 10: 50%
Home VenuePetco ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating points

Pick goes to San Diego Padres on the back of St. Louis Cardinals’s margin work and St. Louis Cardinals’s last-ten momentum. Lineup vs. starter L/R splits matter more than season ERAs in a one-game sample.

Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: St. Louis Cardinals at 73%. Actual: San Diego Padres by 2.

Inputs: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed, scoring margin, recent form, and home venue, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever game pages republish.

Key Players to Watch

St. Louis Cardinals

San Diego Padres

Injury Report

San Diego Padres

Jake Cronenworth7-day ilGerman Marquez15-Day-ILBlake HuntDay-To-DayJhony Brito60-Day-ILLuis Campusano10-Day-IL

St. Louis Cardinals

Matt Pushard15-Day-ILRamon Urias10-Day-ILLars Nootbaar60-Day-ILIxan HendersonDay-To-DayVictor SantosDay-To-Day
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

St. Louis Cardinals
NC Nathan Church LF · #27 VI V. Scott II CF · #11 JW Jordan Walker RF · #18 NG Nolan Gorman 3B · #16 MW Masyn Winn SS · #0 JW JJ Wetherholt 2B · #26 AB Alec Burleson 1B · #41 ML M. Liberatore P · #32 IH Ivan Herrera C · #48
San Diego Padres
RL Ramon Laureano LF · #5 JM J. Merrill CF · #3 FT F. Tatis Jr. RF · #23 MM Manny Machado 3B · #13 XB X. Bogaerts SS · #2 JC J. Cronenworth 2B · #9 GS Gavin Sheets 1B · #30 YD Yu Darvish P · #11 FF Freddy Fermin C · #54

Box Score

Top Performers

Final Notes

  • Final frame: San Diego Padres beat St. Louis Cardinals 4-2.
  • Top line: Dustin May (St. Louis Cardinals) — 6.0 IP, 7 K, 2 ER.
  • Support line: Randy Vasquez (San Diego Padres) — 5.0 IP, 6 K, 1 ER.
  • Support line: Ty France (San Diego Padres) — 1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 R.

Highlights

  1. ScoreMachado homered to left center.8th Inning2–4
  2. DoubleChurch doubled to center, Walker scored.4th Inning1–0
  3. DoubleHerrera doubled to left, Wetherholt scored.8th Inning2–3
  4. ScoreTatis Jr. singled to right, Song scored and Fermin scored.5th Inning1–3
  5. ScoreFrance homered to center (405 feet).5th Inning1–1

Scoring by Inning

Team123456789RHE
St. Louis Cardinals000100010271
San Diego Padres00003001—450

St. Louis Cardinals

· Starter

Batting#

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
JJ WetherholtValue card 2B·1-4411000124.235.352.409
Ivan HerreraValue card DH·2-4402100115.270.416.433
Victor Scott IIValue card CF0-000000000.188.255.240
Alec BurlesonValue card 1B·0-4400000113.267.343.453
Jordan WalkerValue card RF·1-4411000118.301.380.566
Nolan GormanValue card 3B·1-3301001219.225.295.372
Masyn WinnValue card SS·0-4400000217.258.331.359
Nathan ChurchValue card LF·2-3302101020.259.298.438
Thomas SaggeseValue card LF·0-4400000116.158.213.193
Pedro PagesValue card C·0-2200000114.212.261.353
Jose FerminValue card LF0-110000014.250.317.389
Yohel PozoValue card C0-110000013.111.111.167

Pitching#

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Dustin MayValue card SP·6.033227197-644.8597
Justin BruihlValue card RP1.010002015-105.0015
Matt SvansonValue card RP1.011101116-129.6116

San Diego Padres

· Starter

Batting#

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Jackson MerrillValue card CF·0-4400000211.224.288.361
Fernando Tatis Jr.Value card RF·1-4401200219.248.317.298
Manny MachadoValue card 3B·1-4411110219.197.303.364
Gavin SheetsValue card 1B·0-4400000116.215.263.439
Xander BogaertsValue card SS·0-4400000113.261.338.428
Ramon LaureanoValue card LF·0-2200001114.221.302.397
Ty FranceValue card 1B·1-331111019.279.313.574
Sung-Mun SongValue card 2B·0-2210001020.182.250.273
Freddy FerminValue card C·2-331200007.167.269.227

Pitching#

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Randy VasquezValue card SP·5.061106094-593.0594
Jeremiah EstradaValue card RP1.000001015-84.2215
Jason AdamValue card RP1.000000011-71.5011
Adrian MorejonValue card RP0.211101014-85.6614
Mason MillerValue card RP1.100024029-170.9629

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Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 8th InningTatis Jr. struck out swinging.
  2. 8th InningPitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging
  3. 3rd InningSong flied out to center.
  4. 8th InningPitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul
  5. 5th InningPagés popped out to third.

Scoring Plays

  1. 8th InningMachado homered to left center.2–4
  2. 4th InningChurch doubled to center, Walker scored.1–0
  3. 8th InningHerrera doubled to left, Wetherholt scored.2–3
  4. 5th InningTatis Jr. singled to right, Song scored and Fermin scored.1–3
  5. 5th InningFrance homered to center (405 feet).1–1

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