Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Day GameOutdoor1:35 PM ET71°F · 10 mph wind · drizzleMLB.TVRays.TV
Model pickTampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay Rays 5.0 · Boston Red Sox 3.5

68%confidence
Tampa Bay Rays25-13+0.4 net/g (SOS-adj +0.5) · expected win rate 55% · last 10: 80%
Boston Red Sox17-22-0.2 net/g (SOS-adj -0.2) · expected win rate 47% · last 10: 50%
Venue EdgeFenway ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Tampa Bay Rays is the model’s call — Tampa Bay Rays on the margin numbers, Tampa Bay Rays on the form numbers. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.

Three things to watch

  • Form gap. Tampa Bay Rays is 80% over their recent sample; Boston Red Sox is 50%. Streaky teams tend to carry one more game than the math allows for.
  • Net efficiency. Tampa Bay Rays projects 55% from points-for vs points-allowed; Boston Red Sox sits at 47%.
  • Pitching matchup. Drew Rasmussen (Tampa Bay Rays) vs. TBD (Boston Red Sox).

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Tampa Bay Rays

Boston Red Sox

Injury Report

Boston Red Sox

Justin Slaten15-Day-ILRanger SuarezDay-To-DayKutter Crawford15-Day-ILRoman Anthony10-Day-ILDanny Coulombe15-Day-IL

Tampa Bay Rays

Austin VernonDay-To-DayTy JohnsonDay-To-DayLogan DriscollDay-To-DayKeyshawn AskewDay-To-DayTre' MorganDay-To-Day
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Box Score

Live and final box-score stats appear here once the game tips.

Recent Form

Boston Red Sox

  • W@ DET5-4
  • W@ DET10-3
  • W@ DET4-0
  • Lvs TB8-4
  • Wvs TB2-0

Tampa Bay Rays

  • Wvs TOR5-1
  • Wvs TOR4-3
  • Wvs TOR3-0
  • W@ BOS8-4
  • L@ BOS2-0

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