Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Night GameOutdoor6:40 PM ET62°F · 9 mph wind · overcast⚾ Jake Irvin vs Rhett LowderMLB.TVReds.TVNationals.TV
Model pickWashington Nationals

Washington Nationals 5.1 · Cincinnati Reds 4.2

68%confidence
Washington Nationals16-20-0.7 net/g (SOS-adj -0.2) · expected win rate 44% · last 10: 50%
Cincinnati Reds20-16-0.7 net/g (SOS-adj -0.7) · expected win rate 43% · last 10: 30%
Venue EdgeGreat American Ball ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Two reasons the projection lands on Washington Nationals: Cincinnati Reds’s scoring margin profile and Washington Nationals’s recent stretch. Bullpen rest day is the sneakiest input — a long man on the mound erases a 3-run lead in two innings.

Three things to watch

  • Form gap. Washington Nationals is 50% over their recent sample; Cincinnati Reds is 30%. Streaky teams tend to carry one more game than the math allows for.
  • Pitching matchup. Jake Irvin (Washington Nationals) vs. Rhett Lowder (Cincinnati Reds).

Players to Watch

Washington Nationals

Cincinnati Reds

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Injury Report

Cincinnati Reds

Alex YoungOutNick Lodolo15-Day-ILCaleb Ferguson15-Day-ILJosh StaumontDay-To-DayEugenio Suarez10-Day-IL

Washington Nationals

Joan AdonOutLuis Garcia Jr.Day-To-DayCole Henry15-Day-ILClayton Beeter15-Day-ILJosiah Gray60-Day-IL

On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Box Score

Live and final box-score stats appear here once the game tips.

Recent Form

Cincinnati Reds

  • L@ PIT9-1
  • L@ PIT17-7
  • L@ PIT1-0
  • L@ CHC5-4
  • L@ CHC3-2 F/10

Washington Nationals

  • W@ NYM5-4
  • Lvs MIL6-1
  • Lvs MIL4-1
  • Wvs MIL3-2
  • Lvs MIN11-3

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