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Game Read

A transparent matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. It is analysis, not betting advice.

Night GameOutdoor7:05 PM ETProbables: Nick Martinez vs Ryan WeathersMLB.TVRays.TV
Projected leanNew York Yankees

Tampa Bay Rays 4.0 · New York Yankees 4.8

61%confidence
Tampa Bay Rays28-13-1+0.6 net/g (schedule-adjusted +0.7) · expected win rate 56% · last 10: 85%
New York Yankees27-16+1.8 net/g (schedule-adjusted +1.5) · expected win rate 68% · last 10: 50%
Home VenueYankee StadiumHome adjustment: +1.0 rating points

New York Yankees gets the nod thanks to New York Yankees’s margin advantage, with Tampa Bay Rays’s recent run providing the second tip. Bullpen rest day is the sneakiest input — a long man on the mound erases a 3-run lead in two innings.

Three things to watch

  • Form gap. Tampa Bay Rays is 85% over their recent sample; New York Yankees is 50%. Streaky teams tend to carry one more game than the math allows for.
  • Net efficiency. New York Yankees projects 68% from points-for vs points-allowed; Tampa Bay Rays sits at 56%.
  • Pitching matchup. Nick Martinez (Tampa Bay Rays) vs. Ryan Weathers (New York Yankees).

Inputs: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed, scoring margin, recent form, and home venue, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever game pages republish.

Key Players to Watch

Tampa Bay Rays

New York Yankees

Injury Report

New York Yankees

Ben HessDay-To-DayGerrit Cole15-Day-ILJose Caballero10-Day-ILGiancarlo Stanton10-Day-ILTravis MacGregorDay-To-Day

Tampa Bay Rays

Chandler SimpsonDay-To-DayTJ NicholsDay-To-DayAustin VernonDay-To-DayLogan DriscollDay-To-DayKeyshawn AskewDay-To-Day
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Box Score

Live and final box-score stats appear here once the game tips.

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Recent Form

New York Yankees

  • L@ MIL6-0
  • L@ MIL4-3 F/10
  • L@ MIL4-3
  • L@ BAL3-2
  • W@ BAL6-2

Tampa Bay Rays

  • W@ BOS8-4
  • L@ BOS2-0
  • W@ BOS4-1
  • W@ TOR8-5
  • W@ TOR7-6 F/10

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