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Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Night GameIndoor7:07 PM ET
Model pickToronto Blue Jays

New York Mets 3.8 · Toronto Blue Jays 4.4

60%confidence
New York Mets15-25-2-0.7 net/g (SOS-adj -0.9) · expected win rate 41% · last 10: 55%
Toronto Blue Jays18-22-1-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.3) · expected win rate 47% · last 10: 40%
Venue EdgeRogers CentreHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Pick goes to Toronto Blue Jays on the back of Toronto Blue Jays’s margin work and New York Mets’s last-ten momentum. Pitcher confirmation and bullpen availability can move this fastest.

Three things to watch

  • Form gap. New York Mets is 55% over their recent sample; Toronto Blue Jays is 40%. Streaky teams tend to carry one more game than the math allows for.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

New York Mets

Toronto Blue Jays

On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Box Score

Live and final box-score stats appear here once the game tips.

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