BAL @ NYM
Citi Field · Queens, New York
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Baltimore Orioles 3.7 · New York Mets 4.8
The model leans New York Mets because New York Mets owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and New York Mets has the recent-form edge. Lineup vs. starter L/R splits matter more than season ERAs in a one-game sample.
Three things to watch
- Form gap. New York Mets is 55% over their recent sample; Baltimore Orioles is 30%. Streaky teams tend to carry one more game than the math allows for.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Baltimore Orioles
- Chris Bassitt SP · #40
- Kyle Bradish SP · #38
- Gunnar Henderson SS · #2
- Pete Alonso 1B · #25
New York Mets
- Freddy Peralta SP · #51
- Clay Holmes SP · #35
- Tobias Myers RP · #32
- Bo Bichette 3B · #19
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Live and final box-score stats appear here once the game tips.