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Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Night GameIndoor6:40 PM PT
Model pickNew York Yankees

New York Yankees 5.6 · Arizona Diamondbacks 3.3

68%confidence
New York Yankees26-15+1.8 net/g (SOS-adj +1.5) · expected win rate 68% · last 10: 60%
Arizona Diamondbacks19-20-0.6 net/g (SOS-adj -0.3) · expected win rate 44% · last 10: 30%
Venue EdgeChase FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

The model leans New York Yankees because New York Yankees owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and New York Yankees has the recent-form edge. Lineup vs. starter L/R splits matter more than season ERAs in a one-game sample.

Three things to watch

  • Form gap. New York Yankees is 60% over their recent sample; Arizona Diamondbacks is 30%. Streaky teams tend to carry one more game than the math allows for.
  • Net efficiency. New York Yankees projects 68% from points-for vs points-allowed; Arizona Diamondbacks sits at 44%.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

New York Yankees

On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Box Score

Live and final box-score stats appear here once the game tips.

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