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Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Afternoon GameOutdoor4:10 PM ET
Model pickPhiladelphia Phillies

Philadelphia Phillies 4.4 · New York Mets 3.9

64%confidence
Philadelphia Phillies19-22-1-0.8 net/g (SOS-adj -0.7) · expected win rate 42% · last 10: 70%
New York Mets15-25-2-0.7 net/g (SOS-adj -0.9) · expected win rate 41% · last 10: 55%
Venue EdgeCiti FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

The model leans Philadelphia Phillies because New York Mets owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and Philadelphia Phillies has the recent-form edge. Lineup vs. starter L/R splits matter more than season ERAs in a one-game sample.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

New York Mets

On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Box Score

Live and final box-score stats appear here once the game tips.

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