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Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Day GameOutdoor1:40 PM ET
Model pickPhiladelphia Phillies

Philadelphia Phillies 4.4 · New York Mets 3.9

64%confidence
Philadelphia Phillies19-22-1-0.8 net/g (SOS-adj -0.7) · expected win rate 42% · last 10: 70%
New York Mets15-25-2-0.7 net/g (SOS-adj -0.9) · expected win rate 41% · last 10: 55%
Venue EdgeCiti FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Philadelphia Phillies gets the model’s nod thanks to New York Mets’s margin advantage, with Philadelphia Phillies’s recent run providing the second tip. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

New York Mets

On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Box Score

Live and final box-score stats appear here once the game tips.

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