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Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Night GameIndoor6:40 PM CT
Model pickMilwaukee Brewers

St. Louis Cardinals 3.4 · Milwaukee Brewers 5.4

68%confidence
St. Louis Cardinals23-17-1+0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.3) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 55%
Milwaukee Brewers22-16-2+1.4 net/g (SOS-adj +1.4) · expected win rate 64% · last 10: 75%
Venue EdgeAmerican Family FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Two reasons the projection lands on Milwaukee Brewers: Milwaukee Brewers’s scoring margin profile and Milwaukee Brewers’s recent stretch. Bullpen rest day is the sneakiest input — a long man on the mound erases a 3-run lead in two innings.

Three things to watch

  • Form gap. Milwaukee Brewers is 75% over their recent sample; St. Louis Cardinals is 55%. Streaky teams tend to carry one more game than the math allows for.
  • Net efficiency. Milwaukee Brewers projects 64% from points-for vs points-allowed; St. Louis Cardinals sits at 51%.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Box Score

Live and final box-score stats appear here once the game tips.

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