Skip to content

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Night GameOutdoor6:40 PM ET
Model pickTampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay Rays 5.0 · Philadelphia Phillies 3.5

68%confidence
Tampa Bay Rays26-13-1+0.5 net/g (SOS-adj +0.6) · expected win rate 56% · last 10: 85%
Philadelphia Phillies19-22-1-0.8 net/g (SOS-adj -0.7) · expected win rate 42% · last 10: 70%
Venue EdgeCitizens Bank ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Pick goes to Tampa Bay Rays on the back of Tampa Bay Rays’s margin work and Tampa Bay Rays’s last-ten momentum. Pitcher confirmation and bullpen availability can move this fastest.

Three things to watch

  • Form gap. Tampa Bay Rays is 85% over their recent sample; Philadelphia Phillies is 70%. Streaky teams tend to carry one more game than the math allows for.
  • Net efficiency. Tampa Bay Rays projects 56% from points-for vs points-allowed; Philadelphia Phillies sits at 42%.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Tampa Bay Rays

On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Box Score

Live and final box-score stats appear here once the game tips.

Trending