PIT @ DET
Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Pittsburgh Pirates 5.0 · Detroit Tigers 3.9
Pittsburgh Pirates is the model’s call — Pittsburgh Pirates on the margin numbers, Pittsburgh Pirates on the form numbers. Pitcher confirmation and bullpen availability can move this fastest.
Three things to watch
- Form gap. Pittsburgh Pirates is 60% over their recent sample; Detroit Tigers is 40%. Streaky teams tend to carry one more game than the math allows for.
- Net efficiency. Pittsburgh Pirates projects 57% from points-for vs points-allowed; Detroit Tigers sits at 51%.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Pittsburgh Pirates
- Mitch Keller SP · #23
- Paul Skenes SP · #30
- Mason Montgomery RP · #46
- Bryan Reynolds LF · #10
Detroit Tigers
- Framber Valdez SP · #59
- Jack Flaherty SP · #9
- Riley Greene LF · #31
- Kevin McGonigle SS · #7
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Live and final box-score stats appear here once the game tips.