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InTheRafters.com

TB @ MTL

Joshua Silvia
11–16 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Night GameIndoor7:00 PM ET🥅 Andrei Vasilevskiy vs Jakub Dobes
Result readTampa Bay Lightning

Tampa Bay Lightning 1 · Montreal Canadiens 0

Final
Tampa Bay Lightning53-36+0.7 net/g (SOS-adj +0.7) · expected win rate 61% · last 10: 50%
Montreal Canadiens52-38+0.3 net/g (SOS-adj +0.4) · expected win rate 55% · last 10: 50%
Venue EdgeBell CentreHome adjustment: +1.7 rating pts

Tampa Bay Lightning gets the model’s nod thanks to Tampa Bay Lightning’s margin advantage, with Montreal Canadiens’s recent run providing the second tip. Faceoff wins at center ice and PK discipline are the real swings — even strength tends to wash.

Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Tampa Bay Lightning at 54%. Actual: Tampa Bay Lightning by 1.

Players to Watch

Tampa Bay Lightning

Montreal Canadiens

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Game Leaders

Tampa Bay LightningGage Goncalves1
Montreal CanadiensJosh Anderson0

Injury Report

Tampa Bay Lightning

Pontus HolmbergOut

On The Ice

Lines and pairings sketched from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Tampa Bay Lightning
BH Brandon Hagel LW · #38 JG Jake Guentzel C · #59 NK N. Kucherov RW · #86 DR Darren Raddysh LD · #43 MO J.J. Moser RD · #90 AV A. Vasilevskiy G · #88
Montreal Canadiens
JS J. Slafkovsky LW · #20 NS Nick Suzuki C · #14 CC Cole Caufield RW · #13 LH Lane Hutson LD · #48 ND Noah Dobson RD · #53 JD Jakub Dobes G · #75

Box Score

Highlights

  1. 🥅 GoalGage Goncalves Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Dominic James (1), Brandon Hagel (2)1st OT · 9:031–0

Scoring by Period

TeamP1P2P3OTT
Tampa Bay Lightning00011
Montreal Canadiens00000

Team Stats

Tampa Bay Lightning Stat Montreal Canadiens
0PPG0
8PIM8
23FO Won24
37Hits50
6Takeaways3

Tampa Bay Lightning

PlayerBSHTTK+/-TOIPPTOISHTOIESTOISHFTGYTDGASSMSOGFWFLFO%GVPNPIM
Oliver Bjorkstrand RW140012:240:000:0012:2416000010000.0000
Anthony Cirelli C021023:110:003:2819:4332000000121054.5000
Zemgus Girgensons C150012:440:002:2710:1719000020000.0000
Gage Goncalves C010115:260:500:0014:3620110200010.0000
Yanni Gourde C020013:530:001:3712:1617000220010.0100
Jake Guentzel C001020:555:110:5714:47240203301516.7112
Brandon Hagel LW121129:055:093:2720:29340613101150.0400
Dominic James C000113:360:510:0012:451701131010100.0100
Nikita Kucherov RW011022:505:100:0017:4028010690000.0412
Nick Paul LW141012:250:490:0011:36160000205455.6100
Corey Perry RW02009:430:350:009:0816000000000.0000
Brayden Point C110017:215:160:0012:05240101303260.0000
PlayerBSHTTK+/-TOIPPTOISHTOIESTOISHFTGYTDGASSMSOGFWFLFO%GVPNPIM
Erik Cernak D130023:100:013:0620:0333000200000.0000
Charle-Edouard D'Astous D240018:290:440:0217:4327000400000.0012
Emil Lilleberg D030116:260:002:4613:4027000020000.0200
Ryan McDonagh D511021:520:003:1418:3832000000000.0100
J.J. Moser D010125:340:042:5522:3530010100000.0112
Darren Raddysh D010028:115:200:0122:5026010650000.0100
PlayerGASASOSSOSASVSV%ESSVPPSVSHSVTOIYTDGPIM
Andrei Vasilevskiy G03000301.000254169:0300

Montreal Canadiens

PlayerBSHTTK+/-TOIPPTOISHTOIESTOISHFTGYTDGASSMSOGFWFLFO%GVPNPIM
Josh Anderson RW090018:530:002:0916:4424020300000.0000
Zack Bolduc RW131-115:391:340:0014:0518010300010.0100
Cole Caufield RW020019:414:240:0015:1725010420000.0200
Kirby Dach C000-112:091:300:0010:3918020100000.0000
Phillip Danault C140019:310:002:0717:24250002007653.8500
Ivan Demidov RW110017:384:310:0013:0723000530000.0012
Jake Evans C260016:080:003:5112:17220002007653.8000
Brendan Gallagher RW02005:390:000:005:3910010000000.0000
Alex Newhook C100014:310:543:529:45180001101325.0100
Juraj Slafkovsky LW231022:314:380:0017:5324030230010.0000
Nick Suzuki C120024:554:490:0020:06270000309660.0300
Alexandre Texier LW110-117:051:100:0015:5520020300000.0012
PlayerBSHTTK+/-TOIPPTOISHTOIESTOISHFTGYTDGASSMSOGFWFLFO%GVPNPIM
Alexandre Carrier D310024:290:303:2320:3631000020000.0200
Kaiden Guhle D230-124:140:002:1222:0231000120000.0012
Lane Hutson D200030:465:121:0124:3332020240000.0200
Mike Matheson D410028:470:485:2522:3430000000000.0100
Jayden Struble D051012:530:000:0012:5318000010000.0212
Arber Xhekaj D170-111:460:000:0011:4618000100000.0100
PlayerGASASOSSOSASVSV%ESSVPPSVSHSVTOIYTDGPIM
Jakub Dobes G1330032.970284069:0300

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 1st OT · 9:03Game End
  2. 1st OT · 9:03End of OT
  3. 1st OT · 9:03Gage Goncalves Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Dominic James (1), Brandon Hagel (2)1–0
  4. 1st OT · 9:00Gage Goncalves Tip-In saved by Jakub Dobes
  5. 1st OT · 8:34Kirby Dach shot blocked by Oliver Bjorkstrand
  6. 1st OT · 8:32Emil Lilleberg hit Mike Matheson
  7. 1st OT · 7:54Jake Evans hit Nikita Kucherov
  8. 1st OT · 7:39Jake Evans faceoff won against Jake Guentzel
  9. 1st OT · 7:39Goalie Stopped
  10. 1st OT · 7:37Nikita Kucherov Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
  11. 1st OT · 7:36Giveaway by Nick Suzuki
  12. 1st OT · 7:30Brandon Hagel shot blocked by Alexandre Carrier

Scoring Plays

  1. 1st OT · 9:03Gage Goncalves Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Dominic James (1), Brandon Hagel (2)1–0

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