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InTheRafters.com

MTL @ TB

Joshua Silvia
12–18 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Night GameIndoor6:00 PM ET🥅 Jakub Dobes vs Andrei VasilevskiyHBO Max
Result readMontreal Canadiens

Montreal Canadiens 2 · Tampa Bay Lightning 1

Final
Montreal Canadiens53-38+0.3 net/g (SOS-adj +0.4) · expected win rate 55% · last 10: 50%
Tampa Bay Lightning53-36+0.7 net/g (SOS-adj +0.7) · expected win rate 61% · last 10: 50%
Venue EdgeBenchmark International ArenaHome adjustment: +1.7 rating pts

Pick goes to Montreal Canadiens on the back of Tampa Bay Lightning’s margin work and Tampa Bay Lightning’s last-ten momentum. One power-play goal each side moves this projection by roughly half a goal.

Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Tampa Bay Lightning at 57%. Actual: Montreal Canadiens by 1.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Montreal Canadiens

Tampa Bay Lightning

Game Leaders

Montreal CanadiensAlex Newhook1
Tampa Bay LightningDominic James1

Injury Report

Tampa Bay Lightning

Pontus HolmbergOut
On The Ice

Lines and pairings sketched from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Montreal Canadiens
JS J. Slafkovsky LW · #20 NS Nick Suzuki C · #14 CC Cole Caufield RW · #13 LH Lane Hutson LD · #48 ND Noah Dobson RD · #53 JD Jakub Dobes G · #75
Tampa Bay Lightning
BH Brandon Hagel LW · #38 JG Jake Guentzel C · #59 NK N. Kucherov RW · #86 DR Darren Raddysh LD · #43 MO J.J. Moser RD · #90 AV A. Vasilevskiy G · #88

Box Score

Highlights

  1. 🥅 GoalAlex Newhook Goal (1) Batted, assists: Lane Hutson (4), Kaiden Guhle (4)3rd · 11:072–1
  2. 🥅 GoalDominic James Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Charle-Edouard D'Astous (1), Gage Goncalves (2)2nd · 13:271–1
  3. 🥅 GoalNick Suzuki Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Kaiden Guhle (3), Josh Anderson (1)1st · 18:391–0

Scoring by Period

TeamP1P2P3T
Montreal Canadiens1012
Tampa Bay Lightning0101

Team Stats

Montreal Canadiens Stat Tampa Bay Lightning
0PPG1
6PIM4
32FO Won28
43Hits30
4Takeaways4

Montreal Canadiens

PlayerBSHTTK+/-TOIPPTOISHTOIESTOISHFTGYTDGASSMSOGFWFLFO%GVPNPIM
Josh Anderson RW030115:330:000:4114:5222021000010.0000
Zack Bolduc RW12008:510:020:008:4912010010000.0000
Cole Caufield RW050114:293:000:0011:2915010130000.0100
Kirby Dach C140011:020:450:0010:171402000020100.0000
Phillip Danault C030017:560:000:4017:162200000016964.0000
Ivan Demidov RW110017:503:390:0014:1121000000000.0000
Jake Evans C040016:460:002:1114:35190000008657.1000
Brendan Gallagher RW00006:480:000:006:488010000000.0000
Alex Newhook C110116:090:000:4315:2618110100050.0100
Juraj Slafkovsky LW011121:253:410:0017:4421030120000.0000
Nick Suzuki C330222:483:501:2817:30261103106746.2100
Alexandre Texier LW011011:150:000:0011:1517020100000.0000
PlayerBSHTTK+/-TOIPPTOISHTOIESTOISHFTGYTDGASSMSOGFWFLFO%GVPNPIM
Alexandre Carrier D120022:390:002:3320:0629000110000.0300
Noah Dobson D241018:370:190:0018:1825000030000.0300
Kaiden Guhle D230220:560:001:3119:2527002110000.0012
Lane Hutson D011223:273:410:4319:0328021010000.0200
Mike Matheson D110025:220:130:5424:1528000010000.0024
Jayden Struble D04005:060:000:005:066000000000.0000
PlayerGASASOSSOSASVSV%ESSVPPSVSHSVTOIYTDGPIM
Jakub Dobes G1290028.966262060:0000

Tampa Bay Lightning

PlayerBSHTTK+/-TOIPPTOISHTOIESTOISHFTGYTDGASSMSOGFWFLFO%GVPNPIM
Oliver Bjorkstrand RW100-112:120:060:0012:0623000320010.0000
Anthony Cirelli C120-117:500:001:2816:22240000009852.9200
Zemgus Girgensons C370014:000:002:2511:3517000000000.0000
Gage Goncalves C110-114:330:540:0013:3924011310010.0000
Yanni Gourde C120016:010:002:2213:391800001020100.0100
Jake Guentzel C010016:221:570:3313:52200204101420.0100
Brandon Hagel LW121-121:531:570:5119:0523060300000.0100
Dominic James C021-113:270:540:0012:33231204002250.0100
Nikita Kucherov RW100-120:161:570:0018:1924010300000.0100
Nick Paul LW140012:380:550:0011:4320000230101245.5000
Corey Perry RW01008:580:540:008:0413000000000.0000
Brayden Point C010015:061:570:0013:09220102104450.0012
PlayerBSHTTK+/-TOIPPTOISHTOIESTOISHFTGYTDGASSMSOGFWFLFO%GVPNPIM
Erik Cernak D101-117:180:002:3014:4826000010000.0000
Charle-Edouard D'Astous D020-117:410:540:0016:4722001100000.0000
Emil Lilleberg D120015:420:001:1614:2621000100000.0000
Ryan McDonagh D111016:170:002:2913:4822000100000.0100
J.J. Moser D110-122:120:001:2220:5026010010000.0000
Darren Raddysh D110-126:071:570:0424:0625010210000.0400
PlayerGASASOSSOSASVSV%ESSVPPSVSHSVTOIYTDGPIM
Andrei Vasilevskiy G29007.77870057:3000

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 3rd · 20:00Game End
  2. 3rd · 20:00End of 3rd Period
  3. 3rd · 19:56Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Nick Suzuki
  4. 3rd · 19:53Nick Paul faceoff won against Jake Evans
  5. 3rd · 19:53Timeout – Visitor
  6. 3rd · 19:53Mike Matheson Delaying Game
  7. 3rd · 19:48Darren Raddysh Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
  8. 3rd · 19:44Phillip Danault faceoff won against Nick Paul
  9. 3rd · 19:44Off-side
  10. 3rd · 19:31Juraj Slafkovský shot blocked by Brandon Hagel
  11. 3rd · 19:15Juraj Slafkovský shot blocked by Darren Raddysh
  12. 3rd · 19:11Anthony Cirelli hit Nick Suzuki

Scoring Plays

  1. 3rd · 11:07Alex Newhook Goal (1) Batted, assists: Lane Hutson (4), Kaiden Guhle (4)2–1
  2. 2nd · 13:27Dominic James Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Charle-Edouard D'Astous (1), Gage Goncalves (2)1–1
  3. 1st · 18:39Nick Suzuki Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Kaiden Guhle (3), Josh Anderson (1)1–0

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