23 seasons, 333 starts, 649 TDs

Brady averaged 2.0 passing TDs per start across his 333-game career. His most-prolific single season was 2007 (50 TDs in 16 games — the second-highest single-season total ever, behind only Peyton Manning’s 55 in 2013). He threw 40+ TDs in five different seasons — most notably the 2007 season with the undefeated regular-season Patriots and the 2010 season where he threw 36 TDs against just 4 INTs (the all-time record TD-to-INT ratio).

Brady passed Brett Favre’s prior all-time record of 508 in October 2017, then passed Peyton Manning’s 539 in October 2018 to take sole possession of #1. He kept extending the record through his 2022 retirement. The 649 mark is the second-largest gap to second place of any career NFL record (Drew Brees at 571 is 78 behind).

Why no one's catching him

Behind Brady (649): Drew Brees 571, Peyton Manning 539, Brett Favre 508, Aaron Rodgers 500+ entering 2024-25, Philip Rivers 421, Ben Roethlisberger 418, Matt Ryan 381. Among current/recently-active QBs: Patrick Mahomes (~245 entering 2024 at age 28).

To catch Brady, a current QB would need to throw 35+ TDs per season for 11+ more seasons after age 30. Mahomes is again the only current QB statistically capable; he’d need to maintain ~30 TDs/season for the rest of a 16-17 year career. That’s plausible but not certain — and the structural shift in the modern league toward more rushing-heavy QBs (Lamar Jackson, Hurts, Allen) means several next-generation talents are accumulating value in ways that don’t add to the passing-TD column.

Other career-passing records Brady takes with him

Brady’s other career passing records: 7,753 completions (record by 745 over Drew Brees), 12,050 attempts (record by 793 over Drew Brees), 89,214 passing yards (record by 8,856), 251 wins (record by 65). Among all NFL career records that scale with longevity AND production, Brady holds essentially all of them.

The record that may be most-untouchable: Brady’s playoff totals — 88 playoff touchdowns (record by 38 over Joe Montana), 46 playoff games started (record by 18 over Peyton Manning), 13,049 playoff passing yards (record by 5,000+). The combination of playing into your 40s AND winning consistently in the playoffs is statistically what no current player is on track to match.

Background facts cross-referenced with the Wikipedia article on Tom Brady and Pro-Football-Reference / Basketball-Reference public records.