MLB Pythagorean Leaderboard
Expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed only — no record bonus, no recency adjustment. The cleanest read of how teams “should” be performing.
| # | Team | PF/G | PA/G | Expected Win Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Milwaukee BrewersNational League · Central | 5.1 | 3.8 | 63% |
| 2 | Los Angeles DodgersNational League · West | 4.9 | 3.7 | 63% |
| 3 | New York YankeesAmerican League · East | 4.6 | 3.7 | 60% |
| 4 | Chicago CubsNational League · Central | 5.2 | 4.3 | 59% |
| 5 | Atlanta BravesNational League · East | 4.6 | 3.9 | 57% |
| 6 | Boston Red SoxAmerican League · East | 4.3 | 3.8 | 56% |
| 7 | Tampa Bay RaysAmerican League · East | 4.5 | 4.0 | 55% |
| 8 | Detroit TigersAmerican League · Central | 4.5 | 4.0 | 55% |
| 9 | Chicago White SoxAmerican League · Central | 4.8 | 4.4 | 54% |
| 10 | San Diego PadresNational League · West | 4.5 | 4.2 | 53% |
| 11 | Cleveland GuardiansAmerican League · Central | 4.2 | 4.1 | 51% |
| 12 | Philadelphia PhilliesNational League · East | 4.4 | 4.3 | 51% |
| 13 | Arizona DiamondbacksNational League · West | 4.6 | 4.5 | 51% |
| 14 | Pittsburgh PiratesNational League · Central | 4.7 | 4.6 | 51% |
| 15 | Washington NationalsNational League · East | 5.1 | 5.0 | 51% |
| 16 | Miami MarlinsNational League · East | 4.4 | 4.4 | 50% |
| 17 | Baltimore OriolesAmerican League · East | 4.5 | 4.6 | 49% |
| 18 | Houston AstrosAmerican League · West | 4.5 | 4.7 | 48% |
| 19 | St. Louis CardinalsNational League · Central | 4.4 | 4.6 | 48% |
| 20 | New York MetsNational League · East | 4.3 | 4.5 | 48% |
| 21 | Texas RangersAmerican League · West | 4.2 | 4.4 | 48% |
| 22 | Minnesota TwinsAmerican League · Central | 4.6 | 4.9 | 47% |
| 23 | Toronto Blue JaysAmerican League · East | 4.0 | 4.3 | 47% |
| 24 | Seattle MarinersAmerican League · West | 4.1 | 4.5 | 46% |
| 25 | San Francisco GiantsNational League · West | 4.1 | 4.7 | 44% |
| 26 | Los Angeles AngelsAmerican League · West | 4.0 | 4.6 | 44% |
| 27 | Kansas City RoyalsAmerican League · Central | 4.3 | 5.0 | 43% |
| 28 | Cincinnati RedsNational League · Central | 4.1 | 5.1 | 40% |
| 29 | Colorado RockiesNational League · West | 4.6 | 5.8 | 40% |