MLB Pythagorean Leaderboard
Expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed only — no record bonus, no recency adjustment. The cleanest read of how teams “should” be performing.
| # | Team | PF/G | PA/G | Expected Win Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York YankeesAmerican League · East | 5.5 | 3.3 | 72% |
| 2 | Los Angeles DodgersNational League · West | 5.3 | 3.2 | 72% |
| 3 | Atlanta BravesNational League · East | 5.6 | 3.5 | 70% |
| 4 | Milwaukee BrewersNational League · Central | 5.2 | 3.9 | 63% |
| 5 | Chicago CubsNational League · Central | 5.4 | 4.1 | 62% |
| 6 | Pittsburgh PiratesNational League · Central | 5.0 | 4.4 | 56% |
| 7 | Tampa Bay RaysAmerican League · East | 4.4 | 4.0 | 54% |
| 8 | Detroit TigersAmerican League · Central | 4.5 | 4.2 | 53% |
| 9 | San Diego PadresNational League · West | 4.5 | 4.3 | 52% |
| 10 | Seattle MarinersAmerican League · West | 4.0 | 3.9 | 51% |
| 11 | St. Louis CardinalsNational League · Central | 4.8 | 4.9 | 49% |
| 12 | Miami MarlinsNational League · East | 4.2 | 4.4 | 48% |
| 13 | Cleveland GuardiansAmerican League · Central | 4.1 | 4.3 | 48% |
| 14 | Texas RangersAmerican League · West | 3.7 | 3.9 | 48% |
| 15 | Washington NationalsNational League · East | 5.4 | 5.7 | 48% |
| 16 | Minnesota TwinsAmerican League · Central | 4.8 | 5.1 | 47% |
| 17 | Los Angeles AngelsAmerican League · West | 4.5 | 4.8 | 47% |
| 18 | Kansas City RoyalsAmerican League · Central | 4.2 | 4.5 | 47% |
| 19 | Boston Red SoxAmerican League · East | 4.0 | 4.3 | 47% |
| 20 | Chicago White SoxAmerican League · Central | 4.2 | 4.6 | 46% |
| 21 | Arizona DiamondbacksNational League · West | 4.7 | 5.3 | 45% |
| 22 | Toronto Blue JaysAmerican League · East | 4.0 | 4.6 | 44% |
| 23 | Colorado RockiesNational League · West | 4.2 | 4.9 | 43% |
| 24 | Cincinnati RedsNational League · Central | 4.1 | 4.8 | 43% |
| 25 | Houston AstrosAmerican League · West | 4.9 | 5.8 | 42% |
| 26 | Philadelphia PhilliesNational League · East | 4.0 | 4.8 | 42% |
| 27 | Baltimore OriolesAmerican League · East | 4.6 | 5.6 | 41% |
| 28 | New York MetsNational League · East | 3.5 | 4.3 | 41% |
| 29 | San Francisco GiantsNational League · West | 3.1 | 4.2 | 36% |