ARI @ LAD
Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameOutdoor7:10 PM PT⚾ Ryne Nelson vs Emmet SheehanMLB.TVDBACKS.TV
Result readLos Angeles Dodgers
Arizona Diamondbacks 4 · Los Angeles Dodgers 5
Final
Arizona Diamondbacks19-20-0.6 net/g (SOS-adj -0.3) · expected win rate 44% · last 10: 30%
Los Angeles Dodgers24-16+1.7 net/g (SOS-adj +1.6) · expected win rate 68% · last 10: 40%
Venue EdgeDodger StadiumHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Los Angeles Dodgers gets the model’s nod thanks to Los Angeles Dodgers’s margin advantage, with Los Angeles Dodgers’s recent run providing the second tip. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.
Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Los Angeles Dodgers at 80%. Actual: Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.
Pre-game pick: Los Angeles Dodgers at 80%. Actual: Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Arizona Diamondbacks
- Zac Gallen SP · #23
- Eduardo Rodriguez SP · #57
- Ketel Marte 2B · #4
- Corbin Carroll RF · #7
Los Angeles Dodgers
- Emmet Sheehan SP · #80
- Tyler Glasnow SP · #31
- Andy Pages CF · #44
- Shohei Ohtani DH · #17
Injury Report
Los Angeles Dodgers
Mookie Betts10-Day-ILBen Casparius15-Day-ILTyler Glasnow15-Day-ILGavin Stone60-Day-ILBrusdar Graterol15-Day-IL
Arizona Diamondbacks
Carlos Santana10-Day-ILPavin Smith60-Day-ILCristian Mena60-Day-ILJordan Lawlar60-Day-ILA.J. Puk60-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreFreeland homered to right (413 feet).2–1
- ScoreTucker singled to right, Freeland scored.4–5
- 🏃 DoubleThomas doubled to right, Santana scored and Smith scored, Thomas out stretching at third.4–4
- ScoreMarte homered to right (391 feet).2–0
- 💣 Home RunThomas doubled to right, Moreno scored, Smith thrown out at home.1–0
- ScoreBetts homered to center (388 feet), Ohtani scored and Tucker scored.2–4
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — | 5 | 4 | 0 |
Arizona Diamondbacks
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ketel Marte 2B· | 2-5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 23 | .222 | .222 | .556 |
| Corbin Carroll RF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19 | .125 | .125 | .125 |
| Geraldo Perdomo SS· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | .375 | .375 | .875 |
| Gabriel Moreno C· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | .250 | .250 | .250 |
| Pavin Smith 1B· | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 27 | .000 | .500 | .000 |
| Nolan Arenado 3B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 20 | .143 | .143 | .143 |
| Carlos Santana 1B· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 23 | .167 | .286 | .333 |
| Alek Thomas CF· | 2-3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 18 | .333 | .429 | .667 |
| Jordan Lawlar LF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20 | .143 | .143 | .286 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryne Nelson SP· | 4.2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 83-50 | 7.71 | 83 |
| Jonathan Loaisiga RP | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14-8 | 0.00 | 14 |
| Ryan Thompson RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7-7 | 0.00 | 7 |
| Kevin Ginkel RP | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21-13 | 9.00 | 21 |
Los Angeles Dodgers
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani DH· | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 23 | .167 | .444 | .167 |
| Kyle Tucker RF· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 22 | .286 | .444 | .429 |
| Mookie Betts SS· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13 | .250 | .333 | .625 |
| Freddie Freeman 1B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | .000 | .111 | .000 |
| Will Smith C· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | .286 | .286 | .714 |
| Max Muncy 3B· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | .250 | .571 | .250 |
| Teoscar Hernandez LF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | .143 | .143 | .143 |
| Andy Pages CF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | .286 | .286 | .714 |
| Alex Freeland 2B· | 2-3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | .667 | .667 | 2.000 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmet Sheehan SP· | 3.1 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 83-51 | 10.80 | 83 |
| Jack Dreyer RP | 1.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 26-17 | 0.00 | 26 |
| Ben Casparius RP | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 24-14 | 0.00 | 24 |
| Tanner Scott RP | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6-4 | 0.00 | 6 |
| Alex Vesia RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16-12 | 0.00 | 16 |
| Edgardo Henriquez RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13-7 | 0.00 | 13 |
| Edwin Diaz RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 17-10 | 0.00 | 17 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 8th InningBetts grounded out to third.
- 8th InningPitch 8 : Ball In Play
- 6th InningSmith flied out to left.
- 4th InningSantana doubled to right, Smith to third.
Scoring Plays
- 3rd InningFreeland homered to right (413 feet).2–1
- 8th InningTucker singled to right, Freeland scored.4–5
- 4th InningThomas doubled to right, Santana scored and Smith scored, Thomas out stretching at third.4–4
- 3rd InningMarte homered to right (391 feet).2–0
- 2nd InningThomas doubled to right, Moreno scored, Smith thrown out at home.1–0
- 3rd InningBetts homered to center (388 feet), Ohtani scored and Tucker scored.2–4