DET @ SD
Petco Park · San Diego, California
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameOutdoor6:40 PM PT62°F · 4 mph wind · overcast⚾ Framber Valdez vs Michael KingMLB.TVPadres.TVTigers.TV
Result readDetroit Tigers
Detroit Tigers 5 · San Diego Padres 2
Final
Detroit Tigers19-22+0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.1) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 40%
San Diego Padres24-16+0.1 net/g (SOS-adj -0.2) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 50%
Venue EdgePetco ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Pick goes to Detroit Tigers on the back of Detroit Tigers’s margin work and San Diego Padres’s last-ten momentum. Lineup vs. starter L/R splits matter more than season ERAs in a one-game sample.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: San Diego Padres at 50%. Actual: Detroit Tigers by 3.
Pre-game pick: San Diego Padres at 50%. Actual: Detroit Tigers by 3.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Detroit Tigers
- Framber Valdez SP · #59
- Jack Flaherty SP · #9
- Riley Greene LF · #31
- Kevin McGonigle SS · #7
San Diego Padres
- Yu Darvish SP · #11
- German Marquez SP · #33
- Fernando Tatis Jr. RF · #23
- Jackson Merrill CF · #3
Injury Report
San Diego Padres
Jake Cronenworth7-day ilGerman Marquez15-Day-ILBlake HuntDay-To-DayJhony Brito60-Day-ILLuis Campusano10-Day-IL
Detroit Tigers
Connor Seabold15-Day-ILFramber ValdezsuspensionWill Vest15-Day-ILGleyber Torres10-Day-ILCasey Mize15-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreMcGonigle singled to right, Keith scored and Torres scored, Greene to third.4–2
- 🏃 DoubleLaureano doubled to right, Merrill scored.1–2
- ScoreTorkelson singled to left, Torres scored.1–1
- ScoreGreene reached on infield single to shortstop, Carpenter scored, Keith to second, Torres to third.2–2
- ScoreAndujar reached on infield single to shortstop, Machado scored, Merrill to second.0–1
- ScoreDingler singled to right, Greene scored, McGonigle to third.5–2
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 1 |
| San Diego Padres | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
Detroit Tigers
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Carpenter RF· | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 28 | .000 | .200 | .000 |
| Gleyber Torres 2B· | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 27 | .333 | .600 | .333 |
| Zach McKinstry 2B· | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | .500 | .500 | .500 |
| Jahmai Jones RF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Colt Keith 3B | 0-1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | .333 | .429 | .333 |
| Riley Greene LF· | 1-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | .111 | .200 | .111 |
| Spencer Torkelson 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | .250 | .333 | .250 |
| Kevin McGonigle SS· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 25 | .625 | .667 | .875 |
| Dillon Dingler C· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | .375 | .444 | .750 |
| Parker Meadows CF· | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | .200 | .333 | .200 |
| Matt Vierling CF | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Javier Baez SS· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | .143 | .250 | .143 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Framber Valdez SP· | 6.0 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 83-63 | 1.50 | 83 |
| Enmanuel De Jesus RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 13-10 | 0.00 | 13 |
| Kyle Finnegan RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 20-11 | 0.00 | 20 |
| Kenley Jansen RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 11-10 | 0.00 | 11 |
San Diego Padres
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. RF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | .125 | .125 | .125 |
| Xander Bogaerts SS· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | .375 | .375 | .500 |
| Manny Machado 3B· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19 | .333 | .500 | .500 |
| Jackson Merrill CF· | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20 | .286 | .375 | .429 |
| Miguel Andujar 3B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | .143 | .250 | .143 |
| Ramon Laureano LF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | .250 | .250 | .750 |
| Ty France 1B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Gavin Sheets 1B | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Jake Cronenworth 2B· | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | .250 | .250 | .250 |
| Luis Campusano C· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Nick Castellanos RF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael King SP· | 5.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 82-46 | 0.00 | 82 |
| Adrian Morejon RP | 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 23-14 | 0.00 | 23 |
| Jeremiah Estrada RP | 0.2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 27-14 | 54.00 | 27 |
| Wandy Peralta RP | 0.1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17-11 | 0.00 | 17 |
| David Morgan RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12-6 | 0.00 | 12 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 8th InningMcGonigle singled to right, Keith scored and Torres scored, Greene to third.4–2
- 8th InningPitch 10 : Ball In Play
- 8th InningPitch 9 : Ball 3
- 8th InningPitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul
- 1st InningTorres walked.
Scoring Plays
- 8th InningMcGonigle singled to right, Keith scored and Torres scored, Greene to third.4–2
- 6th InningLaureano doubled to right, Merrill scored.1–2
- 6th InningTorkelson singled to left, Torres scored.1–1
- 8th InningGreene reached on infield single to shortstop, Carpenter scored, Keith to second, Torres to third.2–2
- 4th InningAndujar reached on infield single to shortstop, Machado scored, Merrill to second.0–1
- 8th InningDingler singled to right, Greene scored, McGonigle to third.5–2