PIT @ NYM
Citi Field · Queens, New York
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Afternoon GameOutdoor4:10 PM ET39°F · 5 mph wind · clear⚾ Mitch Keller vs David PetersonMLB.TV
Result readNew York Mets
Pittsburgh Pirates 2 · New York Mets 4
Final
Pittsburgh Pirates22-19+0.8 net/g (SOS-adj +0.6) · expected win rate 57% · last 10: 60%
New York Mets15-25-2-0.7 net/g (SOS-adj -0.9) · expected win rate 41% · last 10: 55%
Venue EdgeCiti FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
The model leans New York Mets because Pittsburgh Pirates owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and Pittsburgh Pirates has the recent-form edge. Pitcher confirmation and bullpen availability can move this fastest.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Pittsburgh Pirates at 84%. Actual: New York Mets by 2.
Pre-game pick: Pittsburgh Pirates at 84%. Actual: New York Mets by 2.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Pittsburgh Pirates
- Mitch Keller SP · #23
- Paul Skenes SP · #30
- Mason Montgomery RP · #46
- Bryan Reynolds LF · #10
New York Mets
- Freddy Peralta SP · #51
- Clay Holmes SP · #35
- Tobias Myers RP · #32
- Bo Bichette 3B · #19
Injury Report
New York Mets
Nate LavenderDay-To-DayNick BurdiDay-To-DayGrae KessingerOutJose RojasDay-To-DayA.J. Minter15-Day-IL
Pittsburgh Pirates
Dominic FletcherDay-To-DayJake Mangum10-Day-ILChris Devenski15-Day-ILJared Jones60-Day-ILOddanier MosquedaDay-To-Day
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreTorrens singled to left, Baty scored, Young to second, Semien to third.1–1
- ScoreRobert Jr. homered to left center, Bichette scored and Polanco scored.2–4
- ScoreGonzales singled to center, Reynolds scored.1–0
- ScoreReynolds reached on infield single to third, Mangum scored.2–1
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| New York Mets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 1 |
Pittsburgh Pirates
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Triolo SS· | 1-6 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24 | .200 | .200 | .300 |
| Ryan O'Hearn RF· | 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18 | .333 | .400 | .667 |
| Bryan Reynolds LF· | 2-5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 22 | .333 | .400 | .333 |
| Marcell Ozuna DH· | 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21 | .111 | .200 | .111 |
| Nick Gonzales 3B· | 2-6 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 20 | .400 | .400 | .500 |
| Brandon Lowe 2B· | 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | .333 | .333 | 1.000 |
| Nick Yorke 3B· | 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | .200 | .200 | .200 |
| Billy Cook RF | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Joey Bart C· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | .333 | .333 | .333 |
| Oneil Cruz CF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | .167 | .167 | .167 |
| Henry Davis C | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | .250 | .400 | .500 |
| Jake Mangum LF· | 2-5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | .400 | .400 | .600 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Keller SP· | 6.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 77-49 | 0.00 | 77 |
| Justin Lawrence RP | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 23-11 | 10.80 | 23 |
| Gregory Soto RP | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 27-15 | 0.00 | 27 |
| Dennis Santana RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18-8 | 0.00 | 18 |
| Hunter Barco RP | 1.0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 24-12 | 18.00 | 24 |
New York Mets
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor SS· | 0-5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | .000 | .300 | .000 |
| Juan Soto LF· | 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | .333 | .400 | .333 |
| Bo Bichette 3B· | 1-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | .111 | .100 | .111 |
| Jorge Polanco 1B· | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 23 | .200 | .600 | .200 |
| Luis Robert Jr. CF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 23 | .375 | .500 | .750 |
| Brett Baty RF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | .222 | .222 | .444 |
| Marcus Semien 2B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | .250 | .333 | .375 |
| Carson Benge LF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | .167 | .375 | .667 |
| Mark Vientos 1B | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| Jared Young 1B | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Francisco Alvarez C· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 14 | .333 | .500 | .833 |
| Tyrone Taylor RF | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Luis Torrens C | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Peterson SP· | 5.1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 76-51 | 0.00 | 76 |
| Huascar Brazoban RP | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4-4 | 0.00 | 4 |
| Luke Weaver RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16-8 | 0.00 | 16 |
| Brooks Raley RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 11-8 | 0.00 | 11 |
| Devin Williams RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 19-11 | 0.00 | 19 |
| Luis Garcia RP | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19-13 | 9.00 | 19 |
| Richard Lovelady RP | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21-14 | 0.00 | 21 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 11th InningTriolo flied out to center.
- 11th InningPitch 8 : Ball In Play
- 4th InningRobert Jr. popped out to shortstop.
- 11th InningPitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul
- 9th InningPolanco walked.
Scoring Plays
- 10th InningTorrens singled to left, Baty scored, Young to second, Semien to third.1–1
- 11th InningRobert Jr. homered to left center, Bichette scored and Polanco scored.2–4
- 10th InningGonzales singled to center, Reynolds scored.1–0
- 11th InningReynolds reached on infield single to third, Mangum scored.2–1